by Calculated Risk on 12/21/2024 08:11:00 AM Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! The key economic report this week is November New Home Sales. —– Monday, December 23rd —– 8:30 AM: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This is a composite index of other data. —– Tuesday, December 24th —– 8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders…
by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2024 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2024 02:45:00 PM From WardsAuto: December U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Brighten Lackluster Year; Unusually High Drain on Inventory (pay content). Brief excerpt: Improved affordability is the main thrust to the end-of-year improvement in demand, with higher consumer confidence also likely a contributing factor. But uncertainty over next year could be pulling sales…
by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2024 12:04:00 PM At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2024). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don’t have all data yet, but enough). I’ve linked to my posts from the beginning of the year, with a…
by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2024 10:52:00 AM From Goldman: Following this morning’s data, we left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at 2.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3% [Dec 20th estimate]emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted…
by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2024 09:09:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through November 2024. CPI Shelter was up 4.8% year-over-year in November, down from 4.9% in October, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2024 07:55:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for November. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the PCE price index to…
by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2024 02:03:00 PM From the Census Bureau: Net International Migration Drives Highest U.S. Population Growth in Decades The U.S. population grew by nearly 1.0% between 2023 and 2024, according to the new Vintage 2024 population estimates released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. As the nation’s population surpasses 340 million, this…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2024 05:31:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 4th Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release November Existing Home sales tomorrow, Thursday, December 19th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for 3.97 million SAAR, up from 3.96 million in…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2024 02:09:00 PM Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections. Since the last projections were released, economic growth has been above expectations, the unemployment rate is below expectations, and inflation close to expectations (although there are some “base…