by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2024 02:35:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, our 3Q GDP tracking estimate has moved up a tenth to 2.9% q/q saar from the second official print of 2.8% q/q saar. Additionally, we initiated our 4Q US GDP tracker on Nov 15th with the October retail sales print. Since…
by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2024 11:33:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to November 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This…
by Calculated Risk on 12/06/2024 10:51:00 AM From Manheim Consulting today: Wholesale Used-Vehicle Prices Increase in November Wholesale used-vehicle prices (on a mix-, mileage-, and seasonally adjusted basis) were higher in November compared to October. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.4, an increase of 0.2% from a year ago. The seasonal…
by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2024 07:52:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for November. The consensus is for 183,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment…
by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2024 02:39:00 PM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for November. The consensus is for 183,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. There were 12,000 jobs added in October, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%. From Goldman…
by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2024 08:00:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 220 thousand initial claims, up from 213 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report…
by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2024 02:09:00 PM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the November 2024 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 507 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May…
by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2024 10:05:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.4% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the bubble peak. In the September Case-Shiller house price index released last week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 75%…
by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2024 08:29:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls…
by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2024 05:39:00 PM Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for November: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Surprise on High Side Again in November (pay site). Improved affordability, and possibly relief from the end of contentious national elections, appeared to bring more consumers into dealer showrooms in November, leading sales to post…