by Calculated Risk on 10/06/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory increased 0.2% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is…
by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2025 06:20:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of October 5, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 6 and DOW futures are up 46 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $61.73 per…
by Calculated Risk on 10/05/2025 08:21:00 AM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. The AAR Freight Rail Index (FRI), combines seasonally adjusted rail intermodal shipments plus carloads excluding coal and grain. The index fell 0.8% in September 2025 from August 2025, its fifth decline in…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.7% year-over-year in July • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.7% Below 2022 Peak • Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.6% Year-over-Year • Fannie and Freddie: Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust…
by Calculated Risk on 10/04/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report scheduled for this week is the August Trade Deficit (Will not be released if government shutdown). —– Monday, October 6th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, October 7th —– 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is…
by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2025 01:15:00 PM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased to 2.8% q/q saar from 2.6% after 2Q GDP came in at 3.8% in the third estimate. [October 3rd estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +2.8% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting…
by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2025 10:00:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM® Services index was at 50.0%, down from 52.0% last month. The employment index increased to 47.2%, up from 46.5%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 in contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: Services PMI® at 50% September 2025 ISM® Services PMI® Report…
by Calculated Risk on 10/03/2025 08:01:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory, new listings and median prices. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported active inventory was up 17.0% YoY, but still down 13.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month…
by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 08:13:00 PM NOTE: The employment report will not be released due to the government shutdown. Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for September. The consensus is for 43,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to…
by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2025 01:41:00 PM Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 27 September Impacted by the Rosh Hashanah holiday, the U.S. hotel industry reported negative…