by Calculated Risk on 7/31/2025 09:01:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through June 2025. CPI Shelter was up 3.8% year-over-year in June, down from 3.9% in May, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2025 08:37:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 230 thousand from 221 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Personal…
by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2025 03:36:00 PM From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: June 2025 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Reflecting the broader backdrop of persistent economic uncertainty and weaker consumer confidence, compounded by a slower convention month, the destination saw a ‐11% YoY decline in visitation, hosting approximately 3.1M visitors. Convention attendance was approx. 375k…
by Calculated Risk on 7/30/2025 11:13:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.0% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers! In the May Case-Shiller house price index released yesterday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was…
by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2025 08:09:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls…
by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2025 01:41:00 PM Last month, I noted: State and local government education hiring was reported at 63.5 thousand in June (seasonally adjusted). On a Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) basis, 542.4 thousand education jobs lost. This happens every June. However, this year fewer jobs were lost than expected resulting in the large…
by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2025 10:00:00 AM From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million in June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both hires and total separations were little changed at 5.2 million and 5.1 million, respectively….
by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 09:09:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Hold Perfectly Flat to Start New Week If any given week of movement in the mortgage rate world came with disclaimer, this one would be: “Warning. An absence of volatility on Monday has no bearing on odds for volatility…
by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 05:09:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Decreased in June Excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in June was 0.55%, unchanged from 0.55% May. Freddie’s rate is up year-over-year from 0.50% in June 2024, however,…
by Calculated Risk on 7/28/2025 01:09:00 PM The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q2 2025 today. The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and…