by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 09:08:00 AM SPECIAL NOTE: October prices (data not collected) were averaged between September and November for these graphs. Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago as something to watch. Click on graph for larger image. This…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 08:37:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,500,…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 08:01:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. There were 236,000 initial claims last week. 8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS. The consensus is for…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 03:59:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 01:18:00 PM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential. From the AIA: Architecture firm billings remained soft in November The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month remained well below the 50 level at 45.3 (a score…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 10:15:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: First, California reports seasonally adjusted sales and some measures of inventory. From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales reach three-year high in November, C.A.R. reports Sales…
by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 08:07:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • During the day: The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial…
by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 12:25:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-December 2025 I reviewed home inventory and sales. I noted that the key…
by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 10:33:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales were unchanged from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.5 percent from October 2024. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day…