In February, US personal income fell -0.1% mom, or USD 18.2B, undershooting expectations of 0.3% growth. In contrast, personal spending rose 0.5% mom, or USD 103.2B, in line with forecasts, pointing to continued consumption strength despite weaker income dynamics. On the inflation side, PCE price index rose 0.4% mom, while core PCE also increased 0.4%…
Experts speculate whether Trump will follow through on his threats or will he extend the deadline once again. Bitcoin continues to be susceptible to the developments and statements regarding the war in the Middle East, as it appears the only factor that has impacted its price moves over the past month and a half….
Key takeaways Volatility driven by ceasefire uncertainty: WTI crude surged above $102.25 to as high as $116 before reversing sharply, with an intraday whipsaw driven by conflicting signals around a potential US–Iran ceasefire and Trump’s rhetoric. Ceasefire expectations skewed to June: Prediction market assigns low odds of a ceasefire by end-April (~22.5%) but sees a…
Markets enter the week facing a critical transition—from pricing geopolitical risk to measuring its economic impact—with US CPI set to test the Federal Reserve’s policy path. With Brent crude holding above $100 through most of March following escalation in Iran conflict, upcoming data will act as a litmus test for second-round inflation effects. The core…
The March Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report just dropped into a ghost town but came with a major surprise: +178K vs 60K expectations. This completely erases the prior month’s -92K release (which did get revised down to -133K – But even this got overshaded by today’s release This led to a drop in the Unemployment rate…
Nonfarm payrolls rose by 178k in March, well ahead of the consensus forecast calling for a gain of 65k. Revisions to the two prior months subtracted a total of 7k from the previously reported figures. Smoothing through the volatility, nonfarm payrolls averaged 68k per-month over the last three months or slightly above the breakeven rate…
US labor market showed strong resilience in March, with non-farm payrolls rising 178k, far above expectations of 48k. The solid gain more than offset the downward revision in February, which was revised from -92k to -133k, while January’s figure was revised higher from 126k to 160k, reinforcing a volatile hiring trend. The unemployment rate fell…
Instead of confirming a near-term exit from the Iran War, US President Donald Trump’s address has triggered a sharp repricing of war risk, with markets shifting from de-escalation expectations to renewed escalation. Hopes for any diplomatic resolutions were dashed. Brent oil price surged back toward $110, and risks are now skewed toward a further move…
Although both parties are reportedly in talks about a potential deal, a recent report from the Washington Post claimed that the US has begun preparing for a potential ground invasion into Iran that could last up to two months. This one follows previous reports that the Pentagon was mulling sending up to 10,000 troops in…
The return of “1970s-style stagflation” is no longer a distant tail risk—it is fast becoming the central theme driving global markets. The clearest warning sign is the emergence of a “dual shock” of rising oil prices and climbing Treasury yields. In a typical geopolitical crisis, investors seek safety in bonds, pushing yields lower. This time,…