Markets The Bank of England stuck to its quarterly cutting pace in place since August of last year. They lowered the key policy rate by 25 bps to 4.25% in a 3-way vote. Five out of nine members supported the decision with two in favour of a larger, 50 bps, rate cut and two in…
Bitcoin prices reached an intraday and five-day high of $97,650 during early trading in Asia on Wednesday, May 7. The move has returned the asset to the same level it reached on May 2, where it hit resistance and retreated back below $94,000. Today’s jump added almost $4,000 to BTC prices in around 12 hours, but…
Summary After an unexpected slide in March, the monthly change in the CPI in April is likely to rebound to its six-month trend. We look for the headline CPI to rise 0.2% in April, leading the year-ago rate to dip to a four-year low of 2.3%. We would not be shocked to see a 0.3%…
European shares barely moved on Tuesday as investors reviewed corporate earnings, watched for possible tariff changes, and waited for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy decision later this week. Market sentiment does appear to be holding steady and this is a welcome sign following weeks of swings between risk-on and risk-off. It appears markets are more…
We expect the Fed to maintain its monetary policy unchanged in the May meeting, in line with consensus and market pricing. The Fed will not publish updated economic projections. While we expect the Fed to resume cutting rates in June, we doubt Powell will opt for clear forward guidance amid the tariff uncertainty. Growth risks…
Global risk sentiment continued to improve last week, with major equity indices staging robust rallies as investor anxiety over the fallout from tariffs eased. The solid US non-farm payroll data was a key turning point, reassuring markets that the early economic impact of the trade shock was not as damaging as initially feared. Added to…
Fed governor Jerome Powell will be in the spotlight again the coming week with the upcoming FOCM meeting on Wednesday where rates are widely expected to stay on hold (market prices only 7% probability of a rate cut). That is likely to draw the ire of US President Donald Trump who repeated this week that “he should…
As high inflation fades into the rear-view mirror, has everyone noticed the other signs of a slowing in economic momentum? The torrent of tariff-related headlines eased this week, allowing markets to take a bit of a breather and the rest of us to focus on other things. In a world of continuous data flow, it…
The US April non-farm payroll report today will serve as a critical barometer of the labor market’s resilience amid rising macroeconomic uncertainty. While the recent flip-flopping of reciprocal tariffs may not yet be fully reflected in the data, other indicators suggest growing fragility. A notable miss in today’s report could reignite concerns about recession, particularly…
Franc the main FX winner since “Liberation Day”. Could hit Swiss exports, lead the nation into deflation. How will the SNB respond: Negative rates or intervention? Risk reversals point to strong setback should appetite improve further. Swiss franc the ultimate FX haven The Swiss franc seems to be the ultimate safe haven in the FX…