No matter how strong the trend, corrections are inevitable. The EURUSD pullback was driven by the closing of speculative longs after the Fed cut the federal funds rate, the fall in US stock indices, and strong macroeconomic data. However, as soon as investors bought up the S&P 500 dip and Fed officials started talking about…
Markets UK Chancellor Reeves addressed the Labour Party conference in Liverpool against the backdrop of crashing polling rates and the looming November 26 Autumn Budget event. Yougov projected last Friday that Labour would only gain 144 seats in the 650-seat parliament compared with their 411 election victory. Reeves warned that harsh global headwinds will force…
Currency markets closed last week with a shift in tone, as traders suddenly found themselves recalibrating on Fed’s easing path once again. The resilience of the US economy surprised many. Growth, hiring, and investment all showed more strength than anticipated, fueling doubts about whether policymakers truly need to accelerate the pace of cuts. The question…
Uh oh — that US growth report yesterday was just a bit too strong for investors’ liking. On the surface, strong GDP should be good news but the problem is, such strong growth doesn’t support further Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, and it could even boost inflation expectations on top of potential tariff-led pressures. Understandably,…
Markets Aaaand they’re back at the center of attention again. UK gilts underperform compared to Bunds and Treasuries, especially – you guessed it – at the long end of the curve. The 10-30 year bucket adds 5 bps. A string of sub-par UK gilt auctions this week has been the trigger. While Debt Management Office…
The past week has been anything but quiet for global markets. A long-anticipated Fed rate cut finally arrived, but the message was less dovish than traders had braced for. Instead, policymakers struck a balance — restarting the easing cycle while simultaneously projecting confidence in the economy’s resilience. That left investors reassured. Equities cheered the outcome,…
Markets entered last week with elevated anticipated and left with even sharper convictions. Weak U.S. labor data tilted sentiment decisively toward faster Fed easing, while equity markets used that prospect as a springboard to yet another round of record highs. Bond markets echoed that view. US 10-year yield broke briefly below 4%, sending a signal…
Markets Most markets were mired in technical trading today. Core bonds, at least up until now, are taking a breather after soft US labour market data that last week supported bets for accelerated Fed easing and a further easing of (global) financial conditions. Markets usually take a forward looking approach, mostly ignoring statistical data revisions….
Markets Markets started slow but after all constructive to the new trading week, with bonds and equities closing in green. Upcoming event risk (French confidence vote a.o.) for now didn’t spoil the game. US interest rate markets facilitated a further easing of global financing conditions, with today’s BLS benchmark revision for the US payrolls a…
The past week in global markets has been anything but routine. What began as cautious positioning around economic data turned into a full-scale rethink of Fed policy and global growth prospects. Currency traders, bond investors, and equity markets were all forced to adjust as the numbers told a weaker story than anyone hoped for. At…