Trump’s First 100 Days Ends Wednesday with Much Still Undone – Currency Thoughts
Trump’s First 100 Days Ends Wednesday with Much Still Undone
April 28, 2025
(194) The fifteenth week of the second Trump presidency got off to a more sanguine start, with investors concluding that no news is better than worrisome news. U.S. equity markets opened slightly higher, extending last week’s recovery. Clarity on U.S. tariffs has been prevented by bogged-down negotiations. Legal push-back on other elements of the president’s agenda has slowed their roll-out. U.S. hard data are not signaling a pronounced slowdown yet. Preparing the federal budget is also proving harder than promised by the new administration. An abundance of corporate first-quarter earnings due later this week are awaited with a hopeful mood. On the geopolitical front, the twin wars in Gaza and Ukraine go on. Canada’s election today will provide an early test of the spread of Trumpism to other lands.
Stock markets in Asia rose 1.3% in India, 0.7% in Indonesia, and 0.4% in Japan. European equities are higher, too. Ten-year sovereign debt yields have risen five basis points in Germany, three basis points in the U.K. and four basis points in the United States, France, Italy and Spain.
The dollar is mixed, showing no net movement relative to the euro, gains of 0.3% versus the Swiss franc and South Korean won and dropps of 0.3% against the yen and sterling and 0.2% vis-a-vis the Australian dollar.
Prices are higher for Bitcoin, oil and gold.
Today’s menu of economic data has been inconsequential in number and impact. Austria’s manufacturing purchasing managers index slid back to a 3-month low of 46.6 in April from a 25-month high of 46.9 in the previous month. Comfort from a an improved April distributive trades survey index in the U.K. (a 6-month high of -8 after -41 in March) was mitigated by indications of a likely significant downward move next month.
In China where officials are promising more stimulus later this quarter, corporate earnings were 0.3% above a year earlier in March.
Swedish producer prices slumped 3.0% in March, their largest monthly slide in 26 months and resulting in just a 0.3% 12-month rate of drop. In Malaysia, producer prices edged 0.1% lower on month and fell 1.9% from March 2024.
Hong Kong’s trade deficit of HKD 80.7 billion in the first quarter was little changed from the deficit of HKD 83.1 billion a year earlier.
Finnish consumer confidence became slightly less pessimistic, rising to a 5-month high in April, but consumer sentiment in Taiwan printed at a one-year low.
Copyright 2025, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
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