July 2025 DDD

From Strazza;

I’ve been pounding the table on housing stocks and regional banks for weeks.

Why? Because when rates fall, the most rate-sensitive groups have toparticipate. And when they do, the gains come fast.

That’s exactly what I’ve been positioning for inside Breakout Multiplier.

Let’s rewind a bit…

Back in late June, I shared a thesis: homebuilders weren’t dead — they were coiling, setting up for a failed top and explosive move higher. I was watching the $XHB ETF closely and loading up on Zillow, Rocket Mortgage, and Wayfair like I was prepping to move (because I was).

I stepped in with calls on Rocket Companies $RKT. Then added exposure to D.R. Horton $DHI. And we rounded it out with a tactical trade on the Regional Banks ETF $KRE.

Fast forward to this week:

The DHI calls we bought for $2.70 just doubled.
KRE calls we grabbed for $0.75? Also doubled.
We took profits, sold half, and now we’re riding risk-free into the summer.

This is exactly what Breakout Multiplier is built for:

Find the coiled-up charts. Time the breakout. Push the edge. Lock in profits.

I doubled down on our bullish housing bets today as the entire space looks ready to rip. If you want that alert — and the next one after that — this is your moment.

Copper;

Full:https://www.wsj.com/tech/amazon-war…f?st=WkWaET&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

AI

Tariffs;

Trump’s tariffs add about $82 billion in total new costs for all mid-sized U.S. companies, per a new estimate — a sum that would more than double if rates return to levels seen at the height of trade tensions in April.

Why it matters: That finding, from the JPMorganChase Institute, is among the first to tally the hit to select businesses that are more likely to rely on international trade.

• It gives some insight into the magnitude of costs that could ripple out to the rest of the economy — either in the form of price hikes or slimmer margins that could force owners to shrink costs elsewhere, perhaps via layoffs.

What they’re saying: “The cost amounts to 3% of their payroll — it’s meaningful that they are paying that much to compensate for the tariffs,” JPMorganChase Institute president Chris Wheat, a co-author of the study, tells Axios.

• The figure estimates costs under the current trade regime, which includes last month’s U.S.-China negotiations.
• “As we approach the end of the pause on many steep tariff hikes that were announced on April 2nd, it has become increasingly urgent to understand which firms are the most exposed to potential costs,” a companion report out today says.

State of play: The report focuses on midsize businesses — those with annual revenues between $10 million and $1 billion, which are responsible for 1 in 3 private-sector jobs.

• The sector disproportionately relies on imports from countries with the highest Trump-imposed tariff rates, including China and other Asian nations.
• “They may be bigger than the very smallest businesses, but they’re not the largest — and tariffs are of a magnitude that are not easily absorbed,” Wheat says.

The big picture: Still unknown is which countries will once again face the tariffs announced in early April.

• Top Trump officials say that a flurry of trade deals will be announced in the days leading up to July 9, when the pause on those “Liberation Day” tariffs expires.
• The universal tariffs announced then, including triple-digit levies on Chinese goods, added $188 billion in direct import costs to midsize firms — more than 6 times the costs imposed by the earlier tariffs in place at the start of 2025.
• Put another way, that is 7% of total payroll, on average.

The bottom line: The uncertainty about how much firms might have to pay to import future goods has employers sitting on their hands.

And I still haven’t had time to get to the monthly charts, but JC has;

• I’m reviewing 200 charts to start July.
• I’ll look at all asset classes, and I’ll look around the world.
• This is how we identify trends.

Humans are always looking for ways to hack the system.

It’s perfectly natural.

We’re efficient animals who can multitask without even realizing it.

How many times have you driven your car home while thinking about a million other things.

And you safely arrive in your driveway, not even remembering most of the ride.

The mind is powerful like that.

Market Hacks​

Over many years in the market, as a trader and an investor, I’ve learned the hard way that you can’t cheat the system.

It doesn’t work that way.

I have made one discovery.

And it begins with what we know to be true about the behavior of asset prices.

Asset prices trend.

They’ve done the math, and we know it for a fact.

You can read the white papers, and you can talk to the academics. You can even use common sense: Go see for yourself.

If the price of a stock is trending higher, there is a much higher likelihood the price of that stock will continue higher vs reversing and heading lower.

This is the truth.

This is why Technical Analysis works.

And if we know asset prices trend…and if we know we only get paid if we sell at higher prices than we buy…

We should probably spend time looking for those trends.

And so that’s what we do.

Multiple Timeframes​

Whenever we’re looking for trends, the rule of thumb is to always go one timeframe higher than where you normally trade or invest.

In other words, if you tactically use daily charts going back six to nine months, take it one degree higher.

Look for trends on the weekly charts going back several years to get structural perspective.

If you’re a day-trader or swing-trader who uses 10-minute charts for tactical decisions in the market, look at daily charts for the longer-term time horizon.

This is the multiple timeframe approach.

My friend Brian Shannon wrote a book about this concept, “Technical Analysis Using Multiple Timeframes.”

Monthly Charts​

Regardless of time horizon, my cheat code for trend identification is to analyze the monthly charts.

No one does this.

And they’re all wrong.

This is THE hack in the market.

We only get monthly candlesticks 12 times per year. That’s it. There aren’t that many.

Because of this, not only does this process help us identify the direction of primary trends, it gives us no choice.

It’s so easy to get lost in the day-to-day noise.

“What did the Dow do today?

“What did Powell say?”

“What did Trump tweet?”

To ignore it all, to be able to see past it, every day, in real time, is difficult.

That’s where the monthly charts come in.

With only 12 data points each year, this process of reviewing monthly charts forces us to recognize the direction or primary trends.

We don’t want to fight these trends. That’s a great way to lose money in the market.

We know for a fact, mathematically, that we want to be on the right side of these trends.

That’s how we are able to make money consistently over time.

All the Assets​

So which monthly charts do we want to review at the beginning of every month?

All of them.

That includes the major U.S. indexes – the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, even the small-caps and mid-caps.

We look at indexes for countries around the world, including Germany and the rest of Europe, China and all of Asia, and Brazil and Latin America.

And we check ETFs that give investors exposure to these markets.

We also do a Sector-by-Sector scan: Energy, Financials, Technology…

We also look at Biotechnology, Regional Banks, and Semiconductors too. These are the Industry groups, and they’re also included in this process.

We do the intermarket analysis on longer-term monthly charts, such as Commodities, including Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver.

Our process also covers Currency markets and Interest Rates as well.

I have a list of about 150 to 200 monthly charts I review at the beginning of every month, with fresh monthly closing data.

It’s the most valuable part of my entire process.

This is the cheat code.

This is the life hack.

Nobody else does it.

And everybody’s wrong.

You know I’ll be here doing it every month. It’s the best way to make sure that you’re on the right side of trends.

Because we know asset prices trend, we need to find the best way to identify these trends.

And this is it.

• Never has the index of the most important exchange on Earth been this high.
• “American Exceptionalism?” It’s just the way the world works.
• We’re headed even higher from here.

Have I told you about that time Sean and I got kicked out of the Tokyo Stock Exchange?

I’ll save that story for another day.

But I will say this: The coolest part about the Tokyo Stock Exchange is not the exchange itself.

It’s that it’s in Japan.

And the food there is amazing.

There’s a 7-11 next to the Philippines Stock Exchange in Manila that includes a secret passage to a speakeasy.

Outside the Bombay Stock Exchange in Mumbai, they actually have a giant bronze bull, just like the one on Broadway in New York City.

There are plenty of stock exchanges around the world with plenty of secrets and surprises. That I can tell you from experience.

But there is nothing like the New York Stock Exchange.

And it’s not even close.

I don’t just mean in terms of architecture, history or what it represents.

I’m talking specifically about the stocks that trade on the exchange.

The most important stocks on the planet trade on the NYSE.

In fact, a large percentage of the biggest 100 listed companies aren’t even American.

You’re getting a lot more exposure to international stocks, small-caps, and mid-caps.

And there are more economically sensitive areas like Financials and Industrials represented that you won’t get on other exchanges, such as the Nasdaq.

If you take all the stocks on the NYSE and create a composite index, this is what you get:

And the NYSE Composite Index just put in its highest-ever monthly and quarterly closes.

Never has the index comprising all the stocks listed on the most important exchange in the world been this high… ever.

One thing we know for a fact is asset prices trend.

And when indexes are making new highs, there’s a much much higher likelihood we see more new highs… and then even more after that.

Who’s No. 2?​

We can go back and forth about whether the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500 – or something else – is the most important stock market index.

That’s a valid debate, for sure.

But the most important exchange? No one disagrees.

The NYSE is it.

So, fine.

Who’s No. 2, then?

After much debate and deliberation, I think it’s probably the exchange just uptown from the NYSE.

It’s the one buried in the middle of Times Square.

Sorry Frankfort Stock Exchange, it’s the Nasdaq.

Let’s be real: The U.S. is just that dominant when it comes to capital markets.

The NYSE is No. 1.

And No. 2 is the Nasdaq, just up the road.

Here’s the index of all the stock listed on that exchange:

The Nasdaq Composite just hit new all-time highs on a monthly and quarterly basis too.

The Nasdaq is different from the NYSE in meaningful ways.

You’re not going to get all those Banks and Energy companies up at the Nasdaq.

More than 60% of the Nasdaq’s total weighting is Technology stocks.

Another 18% is Consumer Discretionary – think Amazon.com (AMZN).

You’re not getting any Materials, almost no Energy, no Real Estate, no Consumer Staples, and little to no Industrials or Financials.

To be sure, the Nasdaq is NOT “the stock market.”

The Nasdaq is the Nasdaq.

It’s it’s own thing.

And, in my book, after the NYSE, the second-most important exchange is the Nasdaq.

I’d like to chalk this one up to American Exceptionalism.

But the truth is, a ton of foreign stocks trade on the NYSE, especially among the big ones.

So it’s not an “American” thing.

It’s just the way the world works.

Everybody’s Wrong​

Almost no one I know looks at the NYSE Composite Index.

They’re focused so much on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq100 and even the Russell 2000.

And they forget about the stocks on the world’s most important exchange.

I was told by a millennial trader recently that it’s funny how I look at “exotic indexes” such as the Nasdaq Composite.

This guy literally called the index made up of the stocks that trade on the second-most important exchange in the world “exotic.”

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite dates to February 1971, decades before he was even born.

It’s got the Street cred.

It’s earned my respect.

But I’m still telling you: Everybody’s wrong.

Keep a close eye on these two indexes, not just in this environment, always.

But look at the NYSE Composite first.

Stay sharp,

jog on
duc