Has anyone been able to time ETF’s for a long period?
firstly not all ETFs are index funds ( or reverse index funds ) there are some exotic mixes in there so please research each target CAREFULLY ( those little differences can make a BIG difference in your outcome )
an index fund is designed to track to index but will under-perform slightly due to leakage of the fees ( taken out before got your dividends )
now timing
i started buying VAS March 2011 and kept adding for the rest of 2011 ( and still hold some )
so i am up 77% ( roughly ) over those 13 years which doesn’t seem so flash after you calculate inflation , BUT on the way there have been dividends/distributions ( and franking credits )
now 2011 was a down year and i kept adding ( cheaper ) in the down trend
now IF the ASX was going to fall markedly ( by more than 20%) in 2025 you would have your chance at ‘timing the market ‘ ( instead of buying at recent record highs )
oh by the way .. the wiggle word ‘ is ‘consistently ‘ .. if you did buy in obvious downtrends in the market , i think you would find a better result than just buying some every month .. the market bounces around a fair bit but trends up long term partly fueled by inflation
property vs index funds , the BIG difference is , you can reduce/exit an index fund relatively quickly no waiting for contracts to settle ( well OK you should have your cash in the bank 3 days after selling your ETF and you don’t have to sell it all at once , like a block of land )
now i lost patience ( and sold out of ) an index fund the focused on property stocks ( REITs ) since you understand property you might find comparing such a fund , against your experiences in property say over the last 10 years as some sort of guide
