Axis Bank Q4 Preview: PAT may fall 3% YoY on weak loan growth
Net interest income during the January-March 2024 period is seen rising 5% year-on-year (YoY), according to an average estimate of five brokerages. Meanwhile, the PAT estimates ranged between 7% decline to 1% growth. The average of five estimates for profit is a fall of 3% YoY.
Analysts are building in loan growth of 8% YoY (3% QoQ), which will in turn impact the fee income. Margins are likely to remain flat in the fourth quarter, while asset quality is likely to be stable.
Elara Capital
Expect a softer QoQ growth in loan book, and similar deposit growth. NIM continues to be a key monitorable. We expect steady NIMs or a marginal decline. The Opex trend would lend support to core PPoP growth. Expect asset quality to be key. Credit cost is likely to move towards longer term averages.
Watch for management commentary as regards progress on deposit growth, outlook on PPoP growth and credit cost outcomes.
Nuvama Equities
NII is likely to grow 2.7% QoQ / 6.8% YoY. Margin is likely to remain stable. Axis will likely report QoQ loan growth of 2.8%. Higher trading gains and lower provisions would lead to higher PAT.
Kotak Equities
We expect the NIM to decline 15 bps QoQ (3.8%) to factor the impact of the rate cut cycle. Fee income growth is likely to be sluggish, reflecting weak loan growth.
We expect slippages of Rs 500 crore (2% of loans), mostly led by retail. Key discussion areas are slippages (especially from the unsecured segment), deposit mobilization and NIM progression.
Motilal Oswal
Expect other income to be better, and hence lower cost ratios. Credit cost expected to decline. Asset quality ratios to see a flat trend.
(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)
