CPI & Claims: Fed’s Dilemma, Dollar Soft, Gold ShinesS
– U.S. August CPI rose 0.4% m/m vs 0.3% expected, while jobless claims jumped to 263K (exp 235K), the highest since early 2023. Inflation remains sticky, but labor markets are clearly cooling.
– The Dollar Index (DXY) spiked to 98.00 on CPI before reversing lower, testing support at 97.56.
– Gold (XAUUSD) held the 3620–25 zone and extended toward 3640, with bullish divergence confirming momentum.
– Fed cut bets now lean 70% for 25bp in September, 30% for 50bp.
Bias remains bullish for gold above 3625, while the dollar looks vulnerable unless 98.00 is reclaimed.
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This analysis reflects a personal view for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.
