Forex

The lowest-probability scenario activated, five assets moved in the right direction, and one probability lesson will change how we build frameworks going forward. Source link

ING’s Chief Economist for Greater China, Lynn Song, notes that China’s CPI inflation eased to 1.0% year-on-year after Lunar New Year, while PPI turned positive for the first time since 2022. The report highlights rising energy and transportation fuel costs, suggesting further upside for inflation and a gradual shift away from entrenched deflationary expectations in…

DBS Group Research expects Malaysia’s 1Q26 advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to grow 5.5% year-on-year, slightly below 6.3% in 4Q25 but still robust. Growth is seen supported by export-oriented electrical and electronics manufacturing, global AI tailwinds, construction and domestic demand. Headline inflation is projected to rise modestly to 1.7% in March, with oil-driven pressures cushioned…

Ceasefire drama, stagflationary data, and a collapsing dollar — the US-Iran conflict ran the FX show this week, reshuffling currency rankings almost every session from open to close. Source link

TD Securities expects China’s March exports to normalize after a strong Jan–Feb report, while imports could surprise on the upside as authorities stockpile key goods and commodities during the US–Iran conflict. Rising input costs may slow production and weigh on exports. The bank projects Q1 GDP at 4.8% y/y, supported by strong exports and manufacturing…

Markets are now preparing for a rocky weekend, with high stakes geopolitical developments ahead. Despite recent back-and-forth rhetoric and Iran threatening to cancel the negotiations entirely, a group of Islamic republic diplomats—including Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi—is traveling to Islamabad, Pakistan, to move onto a potential peace deal between the US and Iran. These talks should…

ING’s Min Joo Kang notes that KRW is trading below 1,500, with near-term moves heavily dependent on Middle East developments. The team keeps its 1,450–1,550 trading range, expecting KRW to strengthen rapidly if the war ends. They argue recent KRW weakness stems mainly from foreign equity profit-taking, with attractive Korean equity valuations helping to stabilise…

The markets had a brief respite from the headlines from the Middle East with the release of the CPI and the later the Michigan Consumer Confidence. The latest US CPI report showed a sharp headline acceleration driven primarily by energy, while underlying inflation trends remained relatively contained. Headline CPI rose 0.9% m/m, in line with…