Forex Overview: Dollar in Waiting Mode, Bitcoin Declines: Friday Trap?
Yesterday, Bitcoin reached the $75k mark, and this morning it corrected to $74,660. The dollar is stuck at 98.21—no steps forward, no steps back. Oil stabilized at $94, and gold is at $4,794. Friday is typically a day for position taking, and strong movements without a catalyst are not expected. The POC level for the dollar is at 98.50—this is the zone of maximum trading volume. As long as the price remains below this level, bears maintain control. The range of 98.00–98.50 can be compared to a tiger’s cage: both frightening and impossible to escape.
Key Levels of the DXY Dollar Index for April 17
– Current Price: 98.21 (consolidation in a narrow range)
– Nearest Resistance: 98.50 (POC—maximum volume level, key barrier)
– Next Resistance: 98.70 (upper limit of the value zone)
– Key Support: 98.00 (psychological level)
– Next Support: 97.80 / 97.50 (local minima)
What to Expect Today
Technical Picture of the Dollar
The index is stuck between support at 98.00 and resistance at 98.50. As long as the dollar does not decide on a direction, it is advisable to trade off the boundaries. A break above 98.50 will open the path to 98.70–99.00. A break below 98.00 will accelerate the decline to 97.80–97.50.
Oil: Brent at $94, No Major Changes
Oil has stabilized after yesterday’s fluctuations. The POC for oil is at $95.50—above the current price, which creates technical pressure. For growth, a consolidation above $95 is needed. Key support is at $92. Price movement will follow the dollar.
Gold Consolidating at $4,794
Gold is in the range of $4,780–$4,850. The POC is at $4,700—this is support. A breakout above $4,850 will require a new catalyst (such as weak data from the US or escalation of geopolitical events).
Bitcoin Correcting After the Rise
Bitcoin has dropped to $74,660 after breaking through 75k—this is a normal technical correction. The POC for Bitcoin is at 74k. Holding above this level gives a chance for a retest of 75k and movement toward 76k. A drop below 74k will lead to a correction down to 73k.
What Traders Are Watching
Many are observing the dollar’s consolidation and trying to trade within the range without clear stop-loss orders. On Friday, this is risky: false breakouts can wipe out positions in seconds. Some are buying Bitcoin on the correction, not waiting for confirmation at the 74k level. If the dollar breaks above 98.50, the cryptocurrency may drop below 74k.
Scenarios and Trading Plan
– Bullish (Rise): A consolidation above 98.50 (~40%). DXY Target: 98.70 → 99.00. Buy on a breakout of 98.50, stop above 98.30.
– Consolidation: Price in the range of 98.00–98.50 (~50%). Trade from boundaries with clear stop-losses.
– Bearish (Decline): Breakout below 98.00 (~10%). DXY Target: 97.80 → 97.50. Sell on a breakout of 98.00, stop above 98.20.
Important: False movements are possible on Friday. Wait for confirmation of the breakout (15–30 minutes). Stop-loss orders are mandatory.
Conclusions
The dollar index is stuck in the range of 98.00–98.50. A breakout in either direction will determine the trend for the following week. Oil and gold are consolidating, while Bitcoin is correcting. The market is holding its breath before a decisive movement.
