Goldman on the dollar

Deutsche Börse reported a record first-quarter EBITDA of €1.007 billion, up 10% year-on-year, as heightened geopolitical tensions and market volatility drove strong demand across its trading, clearing, and post-trade businesses. Net revenue, including the treasury result, rose 9% to €1.638 billion, whilst net revenue excluding the treasury result grew 12% to €1.434 billion, reflecting continued…

The FX market is likely to have fully priced in a 25-bps cut from the ECB today, hence it is likely going to be a non-event. The catalysts that may trigger a significant intraday movement in the FX market are new forward guidance (if any) from ECB President Lagarde and the latest Eurozone inflation trend…

Uncle Sam’s mid-tier reports surprised to the upside and forced traders to reconsider aggressive Fed rate cut expectations. How did they affect the major assets’ price action on Thursday? Check out the headlines and economic updates you may have missed in the latest trading sessions! Headlines: FOMC member Mary Daly supports further rate cuts but has…

Prior +2.6% Core CPI +2.8% vs +2.8% y/y prelim Prior +2.9% No changes to the initial estimates for the August readings. It just reaffirms the slow path of the disinflation process in recent months, keeping the ECB on their toes. The central bank has said that they will pause rate cuts in October, while gauging…

At the start of the week, the euro and sterling posted solid gains amid dollar weakness and expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy path, testing local highs. However, the release of the January US employment report shifted market sentiment. Non-farm payrolls rose by 130K versus a forecast of 66K, the unemployment rate unexpectedly…

Nomura highlights that concerns are starting to grow on the Fed’s independence and if that continues, would represent a structural bearish factor against the dollar. As things stand, the greenback is already facing headwinds from the Fed poised to ease monetary policy, softer US growth momentum, and policy divergences with the likes of Europe and…