Look Out Below! – Currency Thoughts
Look Out Below!
November 18, 2025
A plunge of as much as 29.2% in the price of Bitcoin from its early October high of $126,250 six weeks ago to today’s intra-day low of $89,369 this Tuesday reflects the spoils of a tariff policy gone bad, mounting unease over the equity bubble surrounding artificial intelligence, and the unraveling social cohesion of America. There’s been little fresh news out today, but the strong scent of risk aversion remains.
Even after the biggest 3-day loss in over 7 months, the DOW was flashing more red in early pre-open futures trading, with markets awaiting Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report late this afternoon. The Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 have also lost additional ground. Stock markets in the Asian Pacific fell today by 3.3% in South Korea, 2.5% in Taiwan, 1.1% in New Zealand, 0.9% in Singapore, 0.8% in China and 0.7% in Indonesia and Hong Kong. In Europe, stock markets in Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the U.K. have so far dropped between 1.2% and 1.7%.
The scramble into safer sovereign debt instruments has depressed 10-year U.S. and German yields by 3 and 1 basis points, but their British and French counterparts are unchanged.
The dollar hasn’t moved much so far today, either. A 0.3% rise against the Korean won stands at the high side of overnight changes. Gold has depreciated 0.8%.
Published minutes today from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s November 4th policy review that kept the official cash rate at 3.6% fail to pinpoint when the rate might be adjusted next. RBA officials are intentionally proceeding cautiously and comfortable with the current stance until and unless they see discernibly more weakness emerge in Australia’s labor market or consumer spending. Likewise, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson acknowledged downside employment situation risks but also is urging caution as his colleagues consider whether to cut rates next month. Governor Waller’s reiterated preference for easing then wasn’t a surprise, and the market overall is now pricing in marginally less than even odds for the Fed doing another 25-bp cut at the next meeting.
The post-shutdown U.S. data release faucet has so far produced only a trickle. Investors learned of 232k of new jobless insurance claims in the week of October 18 — already a month old and without the permanent loss of readings for the prior three weeks, which are really needed to get any sense of perspective. At 232k, the reading from last week was a tad below the 4-week average of 237.75k between mid-August and mid-September and above figures reported during the first half of 2025.
Producer prices in the Czech Republic recorded a year-on-year drop of 1.2% last month, its deepest fall in three months and the ninth deflationary reading in a row. PPI inflation had spiked late last year to 2.8% in December but otherwise had been under the 2.0% threshold since mid-2023.
Copyright 2025, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved.
Tags: Bitcoin’s price slump, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S. jobless insurance claims
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