Negotiations between the US and Iran have failed. Oil prices are back above 90 dollars per barrel

On Wednesday, the US markets received a strong impulse from a combination of solid macroeconomic data and stabilizing signals from Washington. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.59%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) declined by 0.63%. The Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed lower by 0.59%. The US consumer sector demonstrated unexpected resilience: retail sales in March rose by 1.7%, marking the best result in a year, while sales excluding autos jumped by 1.9% – the strongest increase in three years. Positive momentum was reinforced by the housing market, where pending home sales rose by 1.5%, significantly outperforming analysts’ modest expectations of 0.5%.

On the political front, investors were encouraged by the stance of Kevin Warsh, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chair. During Senate hearings, he emphasized the “strict independence” of the regulator and the priority of price stability, without excuses or ambiguity,” effectively distancing himself from President Trump’s demands for immediate rate cuts. The market interpreted his refusal to provide forward guidance as a sign of a return to traditional, predictable central‑bank policy.

The Mexican peso (MXN) stabilized at 17.3 per US dollar, holding near a six‑week high. Domestic developments in Mexico support the peso’s strength. March inflation data reached a 17‑month high, strengthening the position of hawks within the national central bank. After the recent controversial rate cut, the Bank of Mexico will likely be forced to pause and maintain current borrowing conditions to contain the risk of accelerating price growth.

Tuesday ended with a noticeable decline for European markets. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.60%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.14%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) dropped by 0.65%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the session down 1.05%. Donald Trump’s statement that tomorrow’s ceasefire deadline will not be extended, combined with aggressive rhetoric from both sides, effectively deprived investors of hope for a quick restoration of oil exports through the Persian Gulf.

On Wednesday, silver prices held below the psychological level of 78 dollars per ounce, attempting to stabilize after a sharp 4% plunge in the previous session. Despite Donald Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire, investors focused on the diplomatic failure: the cancellation of J.D. Vance’s visit to Islamabad and Tehran’s categorical refusal to negotiate confirmed the status quo in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Since the start of the military conflict, silver has already lost around 17% of its value, as its dual status as an industrial and precious metal makes it extremely vulnerable to supply‑chain disruptions and the overall slowdown in global manufacturing.

On Tuesday, WTI crude prices stabilized around 90 dollars per barrel, correcting after a sharp 5% surge. The volatility was driven by conflicting signals: the session began amid reports of a diplomatic deadlock and the cancellation of J.D. Vance’s visit to Pakistan, but later Donald Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire. The US President justified this decision by citing a “serious split” within the Iranian government, stating that the pause in hostilities would remain in place until Tehran forms a unified position for signing the final agreement. Despite the diplomatic reprieve, the global supply situation remains critical. The blockade of key transport routes has already reduced supply by roughly 4 million barrels per day, and analysts warn that this deficit could grow to 5 million barrels (around 5% of the global market).

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) rose by 0.89% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) increased by 0.16%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) closed up 0.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.04%.

On Wednesday morning, the Australian stock market showed a sharp decline: the ASX 200 (AU200) fell by 0.9%, approaching a two‑week low. Investors reacted negatively to Wall Street’s sentiment, where skepticism prevailed regarding the viability of the Middle East peace process. Domestic pressure intensified due to weak leading‑indicator data for March, reflecting the negative impact of rising fuel prices on business activity. The real shock for the market was the collapse of Cochlear Ltd. shares by 37% to a ten‑year low after a sharp downward revision of profit predictions. The financial sector and mining industry also suffered significant losses.