One Additional Thought on the Slowdown of U.S. Employment Growth – Currency Thoughts
One Additional Thought on the Slowdown of U.S. Employment Growth
September 6, 2025
Note was made in Friday’s daily post that non-farm payroll employment growth during the middle third of this year (May-August) had averaged only 26.8 thousand per month. To give that pace further perspective, U.S. employment in the first third of the year averaged 123.8k per month, and the average growth in the final third of 2024 had been 217k per month. Liberation Day when President Trump first rolled out a broad series of tariff hikes against U.S. trading partners happened on April 2, just a month before mid-third of the year began. The latest figures for July and August will no doubt be revised additionally, but the direction of modification might as easily be toward weaker than less weak numbers. Another possible explanation is the rapid reduction of immigrant workers from both stiffened restriction on legal immigration and the rounding up of undocumented workers by ICE. There are other labor market measures that have shown more resilience than the growth in jobs. Although at a 46-month low, the 4.3% jobless rate is hardly in territory associated with previous recessions.
All the same, the abrupt deceleration in non-farm payroll jobs, which is one of the most closely followed U.S. economic measures bears very close attention over the balance of this year. Until a benign explanation for the slowdown can be confirmed or unless the growth in jobs picks up anew soon, this development is apt to gather more interest going forward even if the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cutting.
Copyright 2025, Larry Greenberg. All rights reserved. No secondary distribution without express permission.
Tags: slower U.S. employment growth
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