Silver Strengthens Amid Global Turmoil. Forecast as of 23.01.2026 | LiteFinance
When everything around starts to break down, investors rush to safe-haven assets. Events involving Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland have shaken the old international order and pushed XAG/USD up by 25%. Let’s discuss this and outline a trading plan.
The article covers the following subjects:
Major Takeaways
- Silver acts as insurance against Donald Trump.
- Geopolitics has driven XAG/USD up by 25%.
- The rally in precious metals is speculative.
- If XAG/USD fails to hold above 98, consider selling it.
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Silver
In 2025, Donald Trump set out to reshape the global trade system. In 2026, he turned his focus to international relations. Developments around Venezuela, Iran, and Greenland prompted Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to say that the old world order has collapsed. When everything starts to fall apart, investors turn to safe-haven assets. It is hardly surprising that silver has risen by nearly a quarter in less than a month.
In the past, precious metals served as a hedge against inflation, geopolitical risks, and political shocks. Now, markets increasingly view them as hedging instruments against Donald Trump’s actions. His presidency is only about a year in, with three more years remaining. How high can XAG/USD go?
At the early stage of the precious metals rally, fundamentals supported the move. Now, it is hard to describe XAG/USD’s rise as anything other than speculative. Buying silver made sense when investors expected new import tariffs. It became a different story once it emerged that the US would abandon those tariffs. That shift turned into a real trap for asset managers.
Asset Managers’ Positioning in Silver
Source: Bloomberg.
Markets buy the rumor and sell the fact. Financial managers began to cut long positions, reducing net longs to their lowest level in more than 22 months. Yet silver kept rising. After reports about the Venezuelan president’s abduction, markets started to price in the risk of a US military strike on Iran. Then came the Greenland saga.
When the market lacked bullish drivers, it simply created them. Rumors spread quickly that tighter export controls in China would limit supply. Premiums between Shanghai and London widened, encouraging imports and supporting XAG/USD.
Silver Premium Dynamics in Shanghai and London
Source: Bloomberg.
In reality, delivery rules have not changed. Most of these flows involve re-exports. Still, speculators need fuel to keep the rally alive.
The best cure for high prices is high prices themselves. Silver at $100 per ounce hurts industrial demand. Longi, the world’s fourth-largest solar panel manufacturer, has already said it will switch to non-precious metals. Others may follow.
This process takes time. To push prices sharply lower, the market needs to scare speculators right now. But with Donald Trump set to remain a major force in global economics and politics, investors still see precious metals as the best form of insurance.
Weekly Trading Plan for XAG/USD
Silver has reached the first of two targets at $98 and $100 per ounce. If the price fails to hold at this level, it may open the door for short-term selling. However, aggressive selling is not recommended. Buying on pullbacks remains a reliable strategy, and we should continue to follow it.
This forecast is based on the analysis of fundamental factors, including official statements from financial institutions and regulators, various geopolitical and economic developments, and statistical data. Historical market data are also considered.
Price chart of XAGUSD in real time mode
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