by Calculated Risk on 2/23/2025 11:04:00 AM This morning, Carl Quintanilla posted a graph on Bluesky from BESPOKE suggesting the US is heading towards a recession. Quintanilla quoted BESPOKE: “On a 12-month average basis, .. Housing Starts have completely rolled over from their peak .. “.. Recessions have always followed a rollover in Housing Starts,…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January • Housing Starts Decreased to 1.366 million Annual Rate in January • The “Neutral” Rate and Implications for 30-year Mortgage Rates • California Home Sales Down 1.9% YoY in…
by Calculated Risk on 2/22/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are January New Home sales, the second estimate of Q4 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for January, and Case-Shiller house prices. For manufacturing, the February Dallas, Kansas City, and Richmond Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, February 24th —– 8:30 AM…
by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2025 07:03:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2025 02:06:00 PM From BofA: We initiated our 1Q US GDP tracker with the January retail sales print on February 14. Since then, our 1Q GDP tracker is down two-tenths to 2.3% q/q saar from our official forecast of 2.5% q/q saar. Meanwhile, our 4Q GDP tracking is down two-tenths to…
by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2025 11:05:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 4.08 million SAAR in January Excerpt: Sales in January (4.08 million SAAR) were down 4.9% from the previous month and were 2.0% above the January 2024 sales rate. This was the fourth consecutive year-over-year increase after…
by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased 4.9% in January, But Increased Year-Over-Year for Fourth Consecutive Month Existing-home sales retreated in January, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Sales slipped in three major U.S. regions and held steady in the Midwest. Year-over-year, sales rose in three regions and…
by Calculated Risk on 2/21/2025 08:07:00 AM From ICE: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Foreclosure Starts Jump as VA Moratorium Ends; Wildfire Delinquencies Emerge • Delinquencies fell 24 basis points (bps) to 3.47% in January; that’s 10 bps higher than last year, but 33 bps below pre-pandemic levels • Foreclosure starts jumped by 30%…
by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2025 07:01:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for January from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.17 million SAAR, down from 4.24 million. • Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s…
by Calculated Risk on 2/20/2025 03:25:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For January, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.6% YoY, but still down 24.8% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …