At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • New Home Sales Decrease to 657,000 Annual Rate in January • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 3.9% year-over-year in December • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January;…
by Calculated Risk on 3/01/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report scheduled for this week is the February employment report. Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook on Friday. —– Monday, March 3rd —– 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.8, down from 50.9 in…
by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 07:03:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 11:49:00 AM From BofA: The second print of 4Q GDP came in at 2.3% q/q saar, unchanged from the advance print and a tenth higher than our tracking estimate. Meanwhile, our 1Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 2.3% q/q saar since our last weekly publication. [Feb 28th]emphasis added From Goldman:…
by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 10:47:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in January; Up 3.9% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.41% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in January. On a year-over-year basis, the…
by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 08:57:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through January 2025. CPI Shelter was up 4.4% year-over-year in January, down from 4.6% in December, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2025 08:30:00 AM The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays, January 2025 report for January: Personal income increased $221.9 billion (0.9 percent at a monthly rate) in January, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $194.3…
by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2025 07:23:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index…
by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2025 04:01:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For February, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 27.5% YoY, but still down 22.9% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 2/27/2025 12:53:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.0% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the December Case-Shiller house price index released this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being…