by Calculated Risk on 1/04/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the November Trade Deficit and November Job Openings. —– Monday, January 6th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, January 7th —– 8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the…
by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2025 09:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2025 06:18:00 PM Wards Auto released their estimate of light vehicle sales for December: U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales End 2024 With Long-Time High December, Q4 SAARs (pay site). December’s 6% year-over-year rise in the daily selling rate capped off a fourth quarter rebound after demand dropped in Q2 and Q3. The return to…
by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2025 02:01:00 PM From Goldman: We left our Q4 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q4 domestic final sales forecast unchanged at +2.3%. [Jan 2nd estimate]emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the…
by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2025 10:37:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.3% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been over 18 years since the housing bubble peak. In the October Case-Shiller house price index released earlier this week, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as…
by Calculated Risk on 1/03/2025 10:00:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 49.3% in December, up from 48.4% in November. The employment index was at 45.3%, down from 48.1% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 52.5%, up from 50.4%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI®…
by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2025 07:21:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Mortgage rates as of Monday (a little lower on Tuesday). Friday:• At 10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.3, down from 48.4 in November. All day:…
by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2025 12:43:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in November; Up 4.0% Year-over-year A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.56% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in November. On a year-over-year basis, the…
by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2025 10:00:00 AM From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending increased: Construction spending during November 2024 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,152.6 billion, virtually unchanged from the revised October estimate of $2,152.3 billion. The November figure is 3.0 percent above the November 2023 estimate of…
by Calculated Risk on 1/02/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending December 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 219,000 to 220,000. The 4-week moving average was 223,250,…