by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2024 12:38:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Final Look at Local Housing Markets in November and a Look Ahead to December Sales A brief excerpt: After the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) releases the monthly existing home sales report, I pick up additional local market data that…
by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2024 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: Pending Home Sales Moved Up 2.2% in November, Fourth Straight Month of Increases Pending home sales gained 2.2% in November – the fourth consecutive month of increases and the highest level since February 2023 – according to the National Association of REALTORS®. The Midwest, South…
by Calculated Risk on 12/30/2024 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 2.5% week-over-week. Inventory will continue to decline seasonally until early next year and probably bottom in late January or February. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The…
by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2024 07:18:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of December 29, 2024 Monday:• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. • At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in the index. • At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity…
by Calculated Risk on 12/29/2024 10:11:00 AM Earlier I posted some questions on my blog for next year: Ten Economic Questions for 2025. Some of these questions concern real estate (inventory, house prices, housing starts, new home sales), and I posted thoughts on those in the newsletter (others like GDP and employment will be on…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • New Home Sales Increase to 664,000 Annual Rate in November • FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores • Lawler: New Census Population Estimates Show Massively Higher Population Growth • Question #8 for 2025: How…
by Calculated Risk on 12/28/2024 08:11:00 AM Happy New Year! Wishing you all the best in 2025. The key reports this week are the October Case-Shiller house price indexes, the December ISM manufacturing survey and December vehicle sales. —– Monday, December 30th —– 9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. 10:00 AM: Pending Home…
by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2024 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2024 11:21:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores A brief excerpt: Here are some graphs on outstanding mortgages by interest rate, the average mortgage interest rate, borrowers’ credit scores and current loan-to-value (LTV) from the FHFA’s National…
by Calculated Risk on 12/27/2024 10:40:00 AM From Goldman: We lowered our Q4 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). Our Q4 domestic final sales forecast stands at +2.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Dec 27th estimate]emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate)…