by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 04:20:00 PM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Continued Economic Uncertainty Reflected in Rail Volumes…In November 2025, total U.S. rail carloads were up 1.5% over November 2024, and 9 of the 20 major rail carload categories posted year-over-year gains. ……
by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 01:04:00 PM The advance release of Q3 GDP has been cancelled. Q3 GDP will be released on Dec 23rd. From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking increased from 2.8% q/q sarr to 3.0% The upward revision was largely due to the strong September durable goods report that…
by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 10:47:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through September 2025. CPI Shelter was up 3.6% year-over-year in September, down slightly from 3.6% in August, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2%…
by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 10:00:00 AM From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, September 2025 Personal income increased $94.5 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in September, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $75.9 billion (0.3 percent) and…
by Calculated Risk on 12/05/2025 09:49:00 AM From Manheim Consulting today: Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index: November 2025 Trends The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) rose to 205.4, reflecting a 1.3% increase in November’s wholesale used-vehicle prices (adjusted for mix, mileage, and seasonality) compared to October. The index is mostly unchanged compared to November…
by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2025 08:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 10:00 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index…
by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2025 04:01:00 PM Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 29 November The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest…
by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2025 01:42:00 PM From Cotality (formerly CoreLogic): US home price insights — December 2025 • Year-over-year price growth continues its downward trend, only rising 1.1% in October 2025. • Price declines expanded from six of the 100 largest metros in January to 32 by October, marking the broadest softening of prices…
by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2025 10:46:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Q3 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO A brief excerpt: Even with the recent weakness in house prices, it is important to note that there will NOT be a surge in foreclosures that could lead to cascading house price declines (as…
by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending November 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 191,000, a decrease of 27,000 from the previous week’s revised level. This is the lowest level for initial claims since September 24, 2022 when it was 189,000. The previous week’s…