by Calculated Risk on 11/30/2025 08:18:00 AM Here is another update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term price comparisons since the new contract…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.3% year-over-year in September • FHFA Announces Baseline Conforming Loan Limit Will Increase to $832,750 in 2026 • Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic) • Freddie Mac House Price…
by Calculated Risk on 11/29/2025 08:11:00 AM Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released. The employment report for November will NOT be released this week. Items listed in RED have not been announced and will likely not be released this week. The key reports this week are the November…
by Calculated Risk on 11/28/2025 02:25:00 PM From J.D. Power: November New-Vehicle Retail Sales Decline 4.8% as Effects of EV Pull-Ahead Persist Brief excerpt: Total new-vehicle sales for November 2025, including retail and non-retail transactions, are projected to reach 1,255,900, a 5.2% decrease year over year, according to a joint forecast from J.D. Power and…
by Calculated Risk on 11/28/2025 12:56:00 PM The advance release of Q3 GDP has been cancelled, and the 2nd release has not been scheduled. From BofA: On net, given the higher weighting of the months of Jul and Aug in quarterly consumer spending as compared to Sep, our 3Q PCE tracking is down a tenth…
by Calculated Risk on 11/28/2025 08:37:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie Mae Multi-Family Delinquency Rate Highest Since Housing Bust (ex-pandemic) Excerpt: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rate Mostly Unchanged in October Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in October was 0.56%, down from 0.57% September. Freddie’s…
by Calculated Risk on 11/27/2025 09:54:00 AM Here are five economic reasons to be thankful this Thanksgiving. (Hat Tip to Neil Irwin who started doing this years ago) 1) The Unemployment Rate is at 4.4% The unemployment rate was at 4.4% in September. The unemployment rate is down from 14.7% in April 2020 (the highest…
by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2025 04:25:00 PM From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Increased Refinance Activity Drives Mortgage Prepayments to 3.5-Year High Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) … oday released the October 2025 ICE First Look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends. “Softening mortgage rates expanded the pool of refinance candidates in…
by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2025 02:00:00 PM Beige Book – November 2025 Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, according to most of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts, though two Districts noted a modest decline and one reported modest growth. Overall consumer spending declined further, while higher-end retail spending remained resilient. Some retailers…
by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2025 10:31:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Freddie Mac House Price Index Up 1.0% Year-over-Year in September A brief excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that its “National” Home Price Index (FMHPI) increased 0.13% month-over-month (MoM) on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in October. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis,…