by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2024 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q1 GDP, March Case-Shiller house prices, and Personal Income and Outlays for April. For manufacturing, the May Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, May 27th —– All US markets will be closed in…
by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 02:21:00 PM From BofA: 2Q GDP tracking is down a tenth to 1.8% q/q saar. Also, we expect the second print of 1Q GDP to be revised down to 1.2% from 1.6%. [May 24th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We boosted our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +3.2% (qoq…
by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 11:16:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Watch Months-of-Supply! A brief excerpt: Although inventory is well below normal levels, so are sales. I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months – and that is unlikely this…
by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 11:01:00 AM The U.S. hotel industry reported higher performance from the previous week and positive comparisons year over year, according to CoStar’s latest data through 18 May. … 12-18 May 2024 (percentage change from comparable week in 2023): • Occupancy: 67.4% (+0.2%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.11 (+2.6%)• Revenue per…
by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2024 08:12:00 AM From WardsAuto: May U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales Tracking to Annualized Rate Flat with April (pay content). Brief excerpt: There is a good possibility sales end May above expectations, depending on much holiday marketing pulls in additional buyers. Second-quarter sales are pegged at a 15.9 million-unit SAAR, with volume rising…
by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2024 07:09:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for April from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.6% decrease in durable goods orders. • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Final…
by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2024 04:15:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For April, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 30.4% YoY, but still down almost 36% compared to April 2017 to 2019 levels. Now…
by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2024 01:55:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: New Home Sales Decrease to 634,000 Annual Rate in April Brief excerpt: Note: there were some seasonal revisions back to 2019, and significant changes to house prices and price distribution in this release. The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales…
by Calculated Risk on 5/23/2024 10:00:00 AM The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 634 thousand. The previous three months were revised down. Sales of new single‐family houses in April 2024 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000, according to estimates released…