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by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2025 03:56:00 PM From J.D. Power: June New-Vehicle Sales Subdued After Reverse of Tariff-Driven Rush to Showrooms; Retail Sales Rise 7.5% in First Half of 2025 Brief excerpt: The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total new-vehicle sales is expected to be 15.0 million units, up 0.2 million units from June…

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2025 02:11:00 PM Another update … a few key points:1) There is a clear seasonal pattern for house prices.2) The surge in distressed sales during the housing bust distorted the seasonal pattern.  This was because distressed sales (at lower price points) happened at a steady rate all year, while regular sales…

by Calculated Risk on 6/25/2025 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 1.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending June 20, 2025. This week’s results include an adjustment for the…

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2025 07:45:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for May from the Census Bureau. The consensus is…

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2025 01:16:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported mostly negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 14 June. … 8-14 June 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 68.6% (-2.4%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$163.43 (+0.6%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$112.11 (-1.8%) emphasis added The…

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2025 08:11:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Lowest Since May 1st Mortgage rates ended the previous week roughly in line with the best levels since May 1st. Today’s modest improvement made it official. Mortgage rates are primarily a function of trading levels in the bond market…

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2025 02:27:00 PM The BLS reported earlier this month: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.2 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 314.839 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the…

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2025 10:50:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.03 million SAAR in May; Down 0.7% YoY Excerpt: Sales in May (4.03 million SAAR) were up 0.8% from the previous month and were 0.7% below the May 2024 sales rate. This was the 4th consecutive…

by Calculated Risk on 6/23/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 32.7% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing.   Usually, inventory is up about 18% to 19% from the seasonal low by this week in the year.   So, 2025 is seeing a larger than…