by Calculated Risk on 6/22/2025 08:48:00 AM This is something to watch again. Here is another monthly update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Housing Starts Decreased to 1.256 million Annual Rate in May • California Home Sales “Sputter” in May; 4th Look at Local Markets • Housing Market Index and Single Family Starts • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in May…
by Calculated Risk on 6/21/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are May New and Existing Home sales, the third estimate of Q1 GDP, Personal Income and Outlays for May and the April Case-Shiller house price index. For manufacturing, the June Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released. Fed Chair Powell…
by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2025 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. This will be the last weekly COVID update for now, although I’ll start posting again if COVID increases significantly. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will…
by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2025 11:45:00 AM There will be some trade related distortions in Q2. From BofA: Overall, 2Q GDP tracking is down from 2.7% q/q saar to 2.6%. [June 17th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We lowered our Q2 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to +4.1% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q2 domestic final sales…
by Calculated Risk on 6/20/2025 08:44:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales “Sputter” in May; 4th Look at Local Markets A brief excerpt: From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California housing market sputters for third straight month in May as home sales and prices pull back, C.A.R. reports…
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2025 08:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for June. The consensus is for a reading of 0.0, up from -4.0 last month. Source link
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2025 04:03:00 PM This data is as of June 17, 2025. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA for the last 6 years. Air travel is essentially unchanged YoY (down about 1.1% YoY). The red line is the…
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2025 10:57:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For May, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 31.5% YoY, but still down 14.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 6/19/2025 08:13:00 AM A year ago I wrote: The Art of the Soft Landing A few excerpts and an updated graph … The “Art of the Soft Landing” requires that the Fed reduce rates quick enough to keep economic growth positive, and slow enough not to reignite inflation. My view is…