1) Economic growth: Economic growth was probably close to 2% Q4-over-Q4 in 2025. The FOMC is expecting growth of 2.1% to 2.5% Q4-over-Q4 in 2026. How much will the economy grow in 2026? Will there be a recession in 2026? 2) Employment: Through November 2025, the economy added 610 thousand jobs in 2025. How…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November • Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads •…
by Calculated Risk on 12/20/2025 07:37:00 AM Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! Special Note: There is still uncertainty on when some economic reports will be released. For example, we are still missing housing starts and new home sales for September, October and November. The key economic report this week is Q3 GDP. —– Monday, December…
by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2025 03:28:00 PM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Another Strange NAR Reading on Northeast Median Sales Prices Excerpt: While today’s existing homes sales report from the National Association of Realtors didn’t contain many surprises, an exception was in the reported median existing home sales prices. The NAR report…
by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2025 11:03:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.13 million SAAR in November Excerpt: The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025. Sales were down 1.0% year-over-year compared to November 2024. The last month of 2025 will have a…
by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 0.5% Increase in November Month-over-month • 0.5% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million in November • 5.9% decrease in unsold inventory – 1.43 million units equal to 4.2 months’ supply Year-over-year • 1.0% decrease…
by Calculated Risk on 12/19/2025 07:59:00 AM Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure! From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 13 December The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 08:01:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 10:00 AM ET, Existing Home Sales for November from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.15 million SAAR, up from 4.10 million. • Also at 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 04:01:00 PM The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in November. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.1%. “The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 12:45:00 PM At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2025). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don’t have all data yet – and some data is still delayed due to the government shutdown). I’ve linked to…