by Calculated Risk on 11/16/2024 08:11:00 AM The key economic reports this week are Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. For manufacturing, the November Philly and Kansas City Fed surveys, will be released this week. —– Monday, November 18th —– 10:00 AM: The November NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 42,…
by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2024 07:46:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2024 03:22:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in October A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National…
by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2024 02:40:00 PM From BofA: Next week, we will initiate our 4Q GDP tracker after the October retail sales print today and October industrial production, housing starts, existing home sales and September business inventories will impact our 3Q and 4Q tracking estimate. [Current forecast 2.0%, Nov 15th]emphasis added From Goldman: Following…
Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-November 2024 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. In Part 2, I will look at house prices, mortgage…
by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2024 09:15:00 AM Earlier from the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.3 percent in October after declining 0.5 percent in September. A strike at a major producer of civilian aircraft held down total IP growth by an estimated 0.3 percentage point in September and 0.2 percentage…
China has prepared effective countermeasures in case the trade standoff with the United States intensifies under the leadership of new President Donald Trump. During Trump’s first term, Beijing was not prepared for Washington’s tough moves, including the imposition of increased tariffs and tighter controls on Chinese investments. However, over the past eight years, China has…
by Calculated Risk on 11/15/2024 08:30:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4% from September to October (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.8 percent from October 2023. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2024, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day…
by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2024 07:40:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for October will be released. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in retail sales. • Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for…
by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2024 04:15:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For September, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 29.2% YoY, but still down 21.1% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …