by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2025 02:08:00 PM Statement here. Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. Here are the projections. Since the last projections were released, economic growth, the unemployment rate and inflation all have been close to expectations. The BEA’s estimate for first half 2025…
by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2025 02:00:00 PM Fed Chair Powell press conference video here or on YouTube here, starting at 2:30 PM ET. FOMC Statement: Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low….
by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2025 09:10:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.307 million Annual Rate in August A brief excerpt: Total housing starts in August were well below expectations, however, starts in June and July were revised up. The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total…
by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2025 08:30:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,307,000. This is 8.5 percent below the revised July estimate of 1,429,000 and is 6.0 percent below the August 2024 rate of 1,391,000. Single-family housing starts…
by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2025 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications increased 29.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 12, 2025. Last week’s results included an adjustment for the…
by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2025 07:50:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • At 8:30 AM, Housing Starts for August. The consensus is for 1.375 million SAAR, down…
by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2025 10:00:00 AM The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 32, unchanged from 32 last month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Steady but Future Sales Expectations Hit Six-Month…
Bitcoin remains quite resilient, following an uptrend. However, this growth is fragile, experts warn investors. Meanwhile, the outlook for the US dollar is unstable and leans negative. Against this backdrop, analysts believe that the dollar may require shock therapy for a meaningful recovery. On Monday, September 15, Bitcoin opened the day with a slight decline,…
by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2025 07:53:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Start Week at Another Long-Term Low Mortgage rates have done almost nothing but move lower over the past 4 months. The first Fridays in August and September account for about half of the total drop thanks to weaker results…
by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2025 02:41:00 PM With unemployment increasing, but not quite recessionary, I’m reminded of a post I wrote in May 2011: Employment: A dirty little secret [I]t really isn’t much of a secret that Wall Street and corporate America like the unemployment rate to be a little high. But it is “dirty”…