by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2025 11:01:00 AM From BofA: Since our last weekly publication, 3Q GDP tracking is up a tenth to 1.7% q/q saar and 2Q GDP tracking is unchanged at 3.2%. Here are the details to our tracking changes. [September 12th comment]emphasis added From Goldman: Our Q3 GDP forecast stands at +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter…
by Calculated Risk on 9/12/2025 08:14:00 AM The BLS reported yesterday: The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 2.8 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 317.306 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.3 percent prior to seasonal adjustment. CPI-W is the index that is…
Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday: • At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for September). Source link
Wall Street Hits Fresh Highs The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record levels on Wednesday, driven by a powerful surge in Oracle shares and cooler-than-expected US inflation data. Investors interpreted this as a strong signal that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates next week. Oracle’s Breakthrough Oracle stock skyrocketed more than…
The pound continues to struggle to find direction against the dollar. The pair is trading between the middle and upper lines of the Bollinger Bands on the D1 timeframe, that is, within the 1.3490–1.3580 range. Buyers continue to test the upper limits near 1.36, while sellers attempt to secure the price below 1.3500. However, as…
by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 02:46:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The “Home ATM” Mostly Closed in Q2 A brief excerpt: During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity – jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” – and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since…
by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 02:00:00 PM The Federal Reserve released the Q2 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States. The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $176.3 trillion during the second quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $5.5 trillion and…
by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 11:26:00 AM The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.3%. “The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation…
by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 08:54:00 AM Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago as something to watch. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the YoY price change for Services and Services less rent of shelter through August…
by Calculated Risk on 9/11/2025 08:35:00 AM From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in August, after rising 0.2 percent in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.9 percent…