by Calculated Risk on 8/17/2025 09:01:00 AM From Goldman: On net, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized) and our Q3 domestic final sales estimate by 0.3pp to +0.2%. We left our past quarter GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +3.1%.emphasis added [August 15th estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed:…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 • Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 • Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July; Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields…
by Calculated Risk on 8/16/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports this week are July Housing Starts and Existing Home sales. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the “Economic Outlook” at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. —– Monday, August 18th —– 10:00 AM: The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 03:10:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in July Based on publicly available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 11:52:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 A brief excerpt: Yesterday, in Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-August 2025 I reviewed home inventory, housing starts and sales. I noted that…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 09:15:00 AM From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production (IP) edged down 0.1 percent in July. Manufacturing output was unchanged after increasing 0.3 percent in June. In July, the index for mining declined 0.4 percent, and the index for utilities decreased 0.2 percent. At 104.0 percent of…
by Calculated Risk on 8/15/2025 08:30:00 AM On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.5% from June to July (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.9 percent from July 2024. From the Census Bureau report: Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2025, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 08:45:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for July is scheduled to be released. The consensus is for 0.5% increase in retail sales. • Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 06:21:00 PM From First American Chief Economist Mark Fleming Housing Market Returning to Reality as National Price Growth Cools Further in July, According to First American Data & Analytics Monthly Home Price Index Report Highlights • Annual house price appreciation is at the slowest rate since March 2012. • House…
by Calculated Risk on 8/14/2025 03:15:00 PM The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 9 August. … 3-9 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024): • Occupancy: 68.0% (-1.0%)• Average daily rate (ADR): US$159.61 (-0.6%)• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$108.47 (-1.6%) emphasis added The following…