by Calculated Risk on 4/07/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.3% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 10.7% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. Usually, inventory is up about 4% or 5% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than…
by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2025 06:11:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of April 6, 2025 • Recession Watch Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 200 and DOW futures are down 1,200 (fair value). Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures…
by Calculated Risk on 4/06/2025 08:56:00 AM From the Association of American Railroads (AAR) AAR Data Center. Graph and excerpts reprinted with permission. Recent changes in U.S. trade policy represent a notable shift from previous approaches. These developments will affect multiple sectors, including freight rail, where global trade accounts for approximately 38% of unit volume…
by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2025 07:19:00 PM I am going on “recession watch” for only the 4th time in the 20+ years that I’ve been writing this blog. In December 2022 I went on “recession watch”, but I noted “My sense is growth will stay sluggish in 2023, but the economy will avoid recession.” And…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • FHFA’s National Mortgage Database: Outstanding Mortgage Rates, LTV and Credit Scores • Moody’s: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High • Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in February; Up 3.4% Year-over-year…
by Calculated Risk on 4/05/2025 08:11:00 AM The key economic report this week is March CPI. —– Monday, April 7th —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, April 8th —– 6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for March. —– Wednesday, April 9th —– 7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will…
by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2025 07:56:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…
by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2025 02:36:00 PM Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: Asking Rents Mostly Unchanged Year-over-year Brief excerpt: Another monthly update on rents. Tracking rents is important for understanding the dynamics of the housing market. Slower household formation and increased supply (more multi-family completions) has kept asking rents under pressure. … Apartment List:…
by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2025 01:12:00 PM From BofA: Since our last publication, our 1Q GDP tracking is up from 0.1% q/q saar to 0.4% q/q saar. [Apr 4th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.3% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 3rd estimate] And from the Atlanta Fed: GDPNow The…
by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2025 11:25:00 AM From Fed Chair Jerome Powell: Economic Outlook. Excerpt: Turning to monetary policy, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. The new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy,…