by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2025 09:14:00 AM The headline jobs number in the March employment report was above expectations, however, January and February payrolls were revised down by 48,000 combined. The participation rate increased, the employment population ratio was unchanged, and the unemployment rate increased to 4.2%. Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation Since…
by Calculated Risk on 4/04/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: Employment Situation Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 228,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 4.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. Employment also increased…
by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2025 08:08:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Employment Report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. • At 11:25 AM, Speech, Fed Chair Jerome Powell,…
Trump has imposed new duties «against the whole world» – 185 countries on the list. They will start operating on April 5. The minimum base customs duty will be 10% and will take effect over the weekend. “Mirror” tariffs for a number of countries will be applied from April 9th. To implement these duties, Trump…
by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2025 04:27:00 PM On Friday at 8:30 AM ET, the BLS will release the employment report for March. The consensus is for 135,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. From Goldman Sachs: We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 150k in March, slightly above consensus ……
by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2025 07:34:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 225 initial claims up from 224 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM, Trade Balance report for…
by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2025 05:38:00 PM From the Philly Fed: The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for January 2025. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in one state, and remained stable in two, for a three-month diffusion index of…
by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2025 01:16:00 PM This graph shows heavy truck sales since 1967 using data from the BEA. The dashed line is the March 2025 seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) of 403 thousand. Heavy truck sales really collapsed during the great recession, falling to a low of 180 thousand SAAR in May…
by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2025 09:51:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Moody’s: Q1 2025 Apartment Vacancy Rate Highest Since 2010; Office Vacancy Rate at Record High A brief excerpt: From Moody’s Analytics Economists: Q1 Moody’s CRE Preliminary Trend Analysis The national multifamily market has been under supply-side pressure over the past…
The current panic in the markets may be overblown. If tomorrow’s tariffs prove to be less damaging than expected, we could witness a short but sharp rebound, particularly in the S&P 500. However, any long position at this stage would be countertrend and require strict risk management. As the first quarter draws to a close,…