by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2025 07:00:00 AM From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey Mortgage applications decreased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 17, 2025. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage…
by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2025 07:58:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • During the day, The AIA/Deltek’s Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real…
by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2025 03:46:00 PM Here are a few photos from my trip to Patagonia: Click on graph for larger image. The first photo is at Cape Horn with a friend since high school. We were lucky to able to go ashore! The albatross is a memorial to all the sailors that lost…
by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2025 12:19:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on September Existing Home Sales, and Update on MBS Yields and Spreads A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the…
by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2025 07:13:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Another Boring Day With Mortgage Rates Near 3-Year Lows [W]e’re hanging out near 3 year lows with minimal volatility. In order to see sharper, more sustained momentum, we’d likely need the government shutdown to end. That would allow the most consequential…
by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2025 01:43:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: California Home Sales Up 6.6% Year-over-year SAAR in September A brief excerpt: The NAR is scheduled to release September Existing Home sales on Thursday, October 24th at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 4.06…
by Calculated Risk on 10/20/2025 11:36:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 0.3% week-over-week. Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season. The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015. Click on graph for larger image. The red line…
by Calculated Risk on 10/19/2025 08:16:00 AM Note: CR is on vacation until Oct 21st. This is the 21st year I’ve been writing this blog! Starting in January 2005, I was very bearish on housing – and in early 2007, I predicted a recession. However in 2009 I became more optimistic. For example, in February…
by Calculated Risk on 10/18/2025 08:11:00 AM NOTE: I’m on vacation and returning this week. Government data might be rescheduled due to the government shutdown. The key economic report this week is September Existing Home sales. For manufacturing, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey will be released this week. —– Monday, October 20th —– No…
by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2025 08:11:00 AM From March 2013: Business Cycles and Markets I’ve been asked several times about the recent ECRI recession call (obviously I disagreed with their incorrect recession call in 2011 – I wasn’t even on recession watch then and I’m not on recession watch now – and I also think…