by Calculated Risk on 9/02/2025 10:00:00 AM (Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 48.7% in August, up from 48.0% in July. The employment index was at 43.8%, up from 43.4% the previous month, and the new orders index was at 51.4%, up from 47.1%. From ISM: MManufacturing PMI®…
The financial markets started autumn turbulently: the dollar collapsed to a 5-week low under pressure from a court ruling on Donald Trump’s tariff policy. Intel received a $5.7 billion advance under the CHIPS Act. Meta unexpectedly began talks on a partnership with Google and OpenAI to strengthen its AI position, and Oracle shares plunged by…
by Calculated Risk on 9/01/2025 06:12:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of August 31, 2025 Tuesday:• At 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.6, up from 48.0 in July. • At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase…
by Calculated Risk on 9/01/2025 05:04:00 PM This is something to watch again. Here is another update on lumber prices. SPECIAL NOTE: The CME group discontinued the Random Length Lumber Futures contract on May 16, 2023. I switched to a physically-delivered Lumber Futures contract that was started in August 2022. Unfortunately, this impacts long term…
by Calculated Risk on 9/01/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.1% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 37.8% from the seasonal bottom in January. Usually, inventory is up about 21.5% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 saw a larger than normal increase in inventory. The first…
by Calculated Risk on 8/31/2025 09:21:00 AM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For July, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 24.8% YoY, but still down 13.4% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 1.9% year-over-year in June • New Home Sales at 652,000 Annual Rate in July • Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in July • Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.5% Below…
by Calculated Risk on 8/30/2025 08:11:00 AM The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday. Other key indicators include the August ISM manufacturing index, August auto sales, and Trade Deficit for July. —– Monday, September 1st —– All US markets will be closed in observance of the Labor Day holiday. —–…
by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2025 02:20:00 PM From Goldman: We lowered our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by 0.2pp to +1.6% (quarter-over-quarter annualized), reflecting the wider-than-expected goods trade deficit. Our Q3 domestic final sales estimate stands at +0.6%. [August 29th estimate]emphasis added And from the Atlanta Fed: The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally…
by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2025 11:13:00 AM Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, likely due to less international tourism. The fall months are mostly domestic travel. The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 23 August. … 17-23 August 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):…