by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2025 09:24:00 AM Here is a graph of the year-over-year change in shelter from the CPI report and housing from the PCE report this morning, both through July 2025. CPI Shelter was up 3.7% year-over-year in July, down from 3.8% in June, and down from the cycle peak of 8.2% in…
by Calculated Risk on 8/29/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BEA: Personal Income and Outlays, July 2025 Personal income increased $112.3 billion (0.4 percent at a monthly rate) in July, according to estimates released today by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI)—personal income less personal current taxes—increased $93.9 billion (0.4 percent) and…
by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2025 07:47:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays, July 2025. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to…
by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2025 04:48:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Serious Delinquency Rates Unchanged in July Excerpt: Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in July was 0.55%, unchanged from 0.55% June. Freddie’s rate is up year-over-year from 0.51% in July 2024, however,…
by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2025 12:20:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 2.5% Below 2022 Peak Excerpt: It has been 19 years since the housing bubble peak, ancient history for many readers! In the June Case-Shiller house price index released Tuesday, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was…
by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2025 10:00:00 AM From the NAR: NAR Pending Home Sales Report Shows 0.4% Decrease in July Pending home sales decreased by 0.4% in July from the prior month and rose 0.7% year-over-year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales report. … Month-Over-Month0.4% decrease in pending home salesDeclines in…
Gold has stabilized after two days of gains amid concerns about Federal Reserve independence and US inflation risks. Currently, investors are closely watching signals from the Fed regarding the future path for interest rates, and fears of possible political pressure on the Fed to lower rates before inflation is entirely under control are fueling demand…
by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2025 08:35:00 AM From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd Quarter 2025 (Second Estimate) and Corporate Profits (Preliminary) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2025 (April, May, and June), according to the second estimate released by the U.S. Bureau…
by Calculated Risk on 8/28/2025 08:30:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending August 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 229,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 1,000 from 235,000 to 234,000. The 4-week moving average was 228,500,…
by Calculated Risk on 8/27/2025 07:53:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for initial claims to increase to 236 thousand from 235 thousand last week. • Also at 8:30 AM: Gross Domestic…