by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 04:01:00 PM The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in November. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.1%. “The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 12:45:00 PM At the end of each year, I post Ten Economic Questions for the following year (2025). I followed up with a brief post on each question. Here is review (we don’t have all data yet – and some data is still delayed due to the government shutdown). I’ve linked to…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 09:08:00 AM SPECIAL NOTE: October prices (data not collected) were averaged between September and November for these graphs. Here are a few measures of inflation: The first graph is the one Fed Chair Powell had mentioned two years ago as something to watch. Click on graph for larger image. This…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 08:37:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 224,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 236,000 to 237,000. The 4-week moving average was 217,500,…
by Calculated Risk on 12/18/2025 08:30:00 AM From the BLS: The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis over the 2 months from September 2025 to November 2025, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 08:01:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. There were 236,000 initial claims last week. 8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for November from the BLS. The consensus is for…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 03:59:00 PM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in November and Update on Mortgage/MBS Yields and Spreads A brief excerpt: From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 01:18:00 PM Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential. From the AIA: Architecture firm billings remained soft in November The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for the month remained well below the 50 level at 45.3 (a score…
by Calculated Risk on 12/17/2025 10:15:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in November A brief excerpt: First, California reports seasonally adjusted sales and some measures of inventory. From the California Association of Realtors® (C.A.R.): California home sales reach three-year high in November, C.A.R. reports Sales…
by Calculated Risk on 12/16/2025 08:07:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Wednesday:• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. • During the day: The AIA’s Architecture Billings Index for November (a leading indicator for commercial…