Currencies Marking Time and Scant Progress Reported on Trade Deal-Making Front July 22, 2025 The clock is winding down to the August 1st imposition of higher U.S. tariffs, and hopes for a slew of last-minute trade deals to modify the planned levy amounts are slipping away. In any case, four potentially important events are lined…
Pursuing Other Plans that Don’t Involve America July 21, 2025 (182) Much has changed in the world during the first half of Donald Trump’s second non-consecutive term as president of the United States. As the August 1st tariff hike deadline looms closer, several sets of frenzied efforts to reach trade deals with the U.S. continue,…
Next Week’s Menu: July 19-25, 2025 July 18, 2025 Central Banks: The European Central leads a list of monetary policy reviews that includes central banks in Russia, China, Turkey, Ukraine, and Hungary. Minutes of the last Australian policy review will be published. ECB President Lagarde, Deputy Governor Uchida, and RBA Governor Bullock speak publicly as…
Continuing Uncertainty about the Inflationary Impact Ahead of Higher Tariffs July 18, 2025 Overnight financial market movements have been generally limited. There is a softer dollar, down 0.6% against the Australian and New Zealand currencies, 0.4% verdus the euro and Swiss franc and 0.2% relative to the Canadian dollar and sterling. Ten-year sovereign debt yields…
Dollar and Sovereign Debt Yields Up July 17, 2025 Broadly based dollar rises overnight followed Trump’s denial that he plans to fire Powell and a Beige Book signaling modest to moderate growth in most Federal Reserve districts. There was some relief, too, that yesterday’s producer price report was less alarming the the consumer price data…
Indonesian Interest Rate Cut July 16, 2025 With that trade deal secured, Bank Indonesia cut its interest rate today by 25 basis points to 5.25%. The rate reduction had been expected in light of in-target Indonesian inflation and a stable rupiah. At 5.25%, the new rate level is its lowest since December 2022 and down…
Calm Markets in Face of Approaching Tariff Witching Hour July 16, 2025 The dollar dipped 0.1% overnight against the yen, euro, sterling and Australian dollar but edged 0.1% versus the Swiss franc, kiwi and Turkish lira. The Canadian dollar is flat, while the Korean won lost 0.3%. 10-year sovereign debt yields slid a basis point…
U.S. Economic Policy Bets that Are Disregarding History July 15, 2025 While Republicans and Democrats agree on little, one notable exception is that the policy agenda of the Trump Administration may be the most transforming, or alternatively radicalizing, package of changes ever tried in the nation’s history. Time will be the ultimate judge of whether,…
Chinese GDP and U.S. CPI Highlight Today’s Data Menu July 15, 2025 A slew of Chinese economic data were reported earlier today, and now investors await U.S. June consumer price figures that are expected to reveal a further acceleration of both total and core inflation. The initial effect of higher tariffs may be clarified, and…
Sovereign Debt Yields Rise as Fiscal and Tariff Concerns Crowd Out Soft Economic Data July 14, 2025 (183) A six-basis point increase of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield (JGB) led a rise in comparable sovereign debt yields this Monday that also included increases of two bps in France and Italy and a single basis…