Second Thoughts About Monday’s Euphoria as Spotlight Shines on Price Data May 13, 2025 Nothing has been consistent in this year’s eruption of trade tensions. The scale-back in tariffs that buoyed financial markets yesterday were couched in a temporary context and left net tariff increases since the start of this year still quite significant. Investors…
Two Geopolitical Breakthroughs Send Stocks and Dollar Sharply Higher May 12, 2025 (192) The Pakistani and Indian governments accepted a brokered ceasefire of their rapidly escalating military conflict in Kashmir. Then came news of greater-than-anticipated 115 percentage point scale-back in U.S. and Chinese tariffs against one another. It’s a temporary 90-day agreement that reduces U.S….
Next Week’s Calendar: May 10-16, 2025 May 9, 2025 Central Banks: Central banks in Mexico and Romania will be reviewing interest rate policies, and a summary of the last Bank of Japan Board meeting will be published. Several Bank of England officials speak publicly, including Breeden, Mann, Greene and Gambardelli. San Francisco Fed President Daly…
Another Central Bank Rate Cut in Peru May 9, 2025 The Central Reserve Bank of Peru‘s Board of Directors cut their interest rate by another 25 basis points to 4.5%, three percentage points below the peak of 7.5% that had prevailed from January 2023 until an initial cut in September of that year. In making…
Dollar Down Today but Stronger Than a Week Ago May 9, 2025 In a week that saw the Federal Reserve hold its ground on interest rates and express confidence in the current policy stance, investors were also heartened by some progress in tariff talks that lessened anxiety about a spiraling trade war. The Federal Reserve…
Dollar Rises After Announcements by the Fed and in Response to A Trade Deal Between the U.S. and U.K. May 8, 2025 The dollar strengthened 0.8% against the yen, 0.3% versus the Swiss franc, 0.4% against the Canadian dollar, 0.1% versus the New Zealand and Australian dollars, and 0.2% relative to the euro. The Federal…
Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions Today in the U.K., Norway, Sweden, and Malaysia May 8, 2025 The Bank of England’s base rate was reduced by another 25 basis points to 4.25%. This was the fourth quarter percentage point decline since August 1, 2024. Although the decision matched expectations, it belies the dispersion of opinions on…
Today’s Half Percentage Point Further Increase in Brazil’s Selic Interest Rate Had Been Expected May 7, 2025 After decelerating from 12.1% in mid-2022 to 3.2% a year later, Brazilian consumer price inflation climbed back to a 25-month high of 5.5% by March of this year. Today’s increase in the Central Bank of Brazil’s Selic interest…
FOMC Statement and Chairman Powell’s Press Conference May 7, 2025 Federal Reserve policy held steady at the third scheduled FOMC review of 2025. The decision to stay put was very widely anticipated and approved by all voting members of the FOMC today. A released statement reaffirms that the recent pace of economic activity in the…
May 2025 FOMC Meeting Preview May 7, 2025 In the seven weeks since the last FOMC meeting, the dollar has declined 4.2% against the euro and 1.7% relative to the yen. The 4-basis point net drop in the 10-year Treasury yield and 1.1% slide of the Dow Jones Industrials belie the extreme financial market volatility…