Polish and Czech Central Bank Rate Cuts May 7, 2025 Officials at the Czech National Bank cut their two-week repo rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%, its lowest level since December 2021 and down from a cycle peak of 7.0% maintained for a full year prior to an initial cut in December 2023. One…
Tariff Fears Back in Ascendance May 6, 2025 If enduring dollar hegemony could be assumed, big shocks like a global tariff war would correlate with an appreciating trend driven by safety-seeking capital flows. However, America’s tariff-centric trade policy represents a revolution away from the whole dynamic of the post-WW2 international monetary system. Contrary to the…
Dollar Slips on a Day With Several Markets Closed for Holiday May 5, 2025 The dollar depreciated overnight by 0.8% against the yen, 0.6% relative to the kiwi, 0.5% versus the Swiss franc and Aussie dollar, 0.4% vis-a-vis the euro and 0.3% against sterling. U.S. share prices are trading in the red in contrast to…
Next Week’s Menu: May 3-9, 2025 May 2, 2025 Central Banks: The Federal Reserve leads a lengthy list of central banks reviewing their interest rate stances, including the Bank of England and monetary authorities in Sweden, Norway, the Czech Republic, Armenia, Georgia, Serbia, Malaysia, Poland, Brazil and Peru. Fed Chairman Powell and Bank of England…
Lessening Recession Fears in Spite of Persistent Downside Risks May 2, 2025 A discernible sigh of relief could be heard in the markets after April’s surprisingly healthy U.S. labor situation report. Other lifts came from a 1.7% drop in the price of West Texas Intermediate oil and European manufacturing purchasing manager surveys. Key U.S. stock…
Bank of Japan Is Heard From on a Day Otherwise Muted by May Day Observances May 1, 2025 Bank of Japan officials signaled a longer wait before additional interest rate hikes. In response, the 10-year JGB yield slipped back six basis points, the yen fell 1.2%, but the Nikkei 225 index advanced 1.1%. This week’s…
April 2025 in Figures April 30, 2025 The dollar fell against most other major currencies in April as it had in the whole first quarter, if not more so. The slide was attributable not to economic fundamentals so much as a generalized loss of confidence in America’s geopolitical role in the world. Stock markets experienced…
Central Bank of Colombia Delivers Surprise 25-Basis Point Interest Rate Cut April 30, 2025 From a 13.25% peak maintained from April 2023 until an initial 25-basis point cut in December of that year, Colombia’s central bank interest rate had peaked at 13.25%. CPI inflation had slowed from 13.3% to high single-digit territory by the time…
A Third Thai Central Bank Rate Cut but Not by a Unanimous Vote April 30, 2025 By a 5-2 vote with dissents favoring no change, the Bank of Thailand‘s policy interest rate was reduced by 25 basis points from 2.0% to 1.75%. This marked the third such cut from a peak of 2.5% maintained for…
A Disturbing U.S. Data Reality Check April 30, 2025 The last business day of April typically delivered a ton of data releases, but what stood out most was how abruptly U.S. economic activity slowed last quarter. In the wake of the Covid shock of 2020, U.S. GDP had expanded 6.1% in 2021, 2.5% in 2022,…