Softer Dollar Again September 16, 2025 The dollar was nudged lower as the Federal Open Market Committee prepared to begin a 2-day policy review that is likely to cut the federal funds rate target for the first time since last December. President Trump’s newest governor-appointee Stephen Miran and Lisa Cook, whom he tried to prevent…
A Long, Long View of the Dollar’s External Value: Low Now and In Danger of Weakening Further September 15, 2025 Charts of the often-quoted DXY/USDX weighted index of the dollar provide a view going back to the birth of flexible dollar rates some 52 and a half years ago. The currency weights reflect trade flows…
Soft Chinese Data, A Downgraded French Credit Rating, Upcoming Monetary Policy Reviews, and a Japanese Holiday September 15, 2025 (174) Japanese markets were closed today in observance of Respect for the Aged Day, but China released August economic figures, which on the whole surprised to the downside. A 3.4% 12-month rate of rise in Chinese…
Next Week’s Menu: September 13 – 19, 2025 September 12, 2025 Central Banks: The Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, People’s Bank of China, and central banks in South Africa, Norway, Brazil and Moldova are scheduled to review their interest rate stances. Fed Chairman Powell will hold a press conference afterwards, and revised…
Expectations Solidify that Fed Will Resume Rate Cutting Next Week September 12, 2025 The dollar is modestly firmer this Friday. It’s biggest advance overnight, a 0.4% rise against the yen, was encouraged by a joint U.S.-Japanese statement reaffirming a long-established pledge to let economic fundamentals determine exchange rate values but also asserting that sharply volatile…
European Central Bank Interest Rates Left Unchanged September 11, 2025 The European Central Bank‘s deposit rate was kept at 2.0% today as widely anticipated. This was the second review without a cut following eight straight cuts totaling 200 basis points from June 2024 and June 2025. Today’s statement says that “Inflation is currently at around…
Bigger-Than-Forecast Turkish Central Bank Rate Cut September 11, 2025 A reduction of the Central Bank of Turkey‘s one-week repo auction rate to 40.5% from 43.0% exceeded analyst expectations and the sixth policy rate change amounting to 250 basis points or more since December. Not all of those moves were reductions, however. Three consecutive 250-bp cuts…
Markets Steady As Investors Await ECB Decision, U.S. August CPI Figures, and Fallout from Shooting of Charlie Kirk September 11, 2025 Two and a half hours prior to U.S. released consumer price data, the weighted DXY dollar index was marginally above Wednesday closing levels. Gains ranged from 0.1% against the euro and Swiss franc to…
April 2024 – March 2025 Benchmark Revision of Non-Payroll Employment Clarifies Picture Further September 10, 2025 It was noted in a previous post last Friday that the 27 thousand change in non-farm payroll jobs during the middle third of 2025 was down from 123K in the first third of the year and 218K in the…
Price and Industrial Production Data for Many Economies, Big ECB Announcement Tomorrow, and So Much More September 10, 2025 French President Macron wasted little time appointing his next Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu and by picking someone whose policy preferences align with his signals a continuing stress on budget cuts and pro-business legislation. Street riots continue…