Political Changes, U.S. Benchmark Revisions of Employment, and Various Inflation Data Releases September 9, 2025 French Prime Minister Bayrou lost yesterday’s parliamentary vote of confidence, and President Macron must now appoint another politician to head a parliament in which no party holds a majority of seats. The outcome had been widely anticipated given the sharp…
Political Troubles in Japan and France, But Also Worrying Signs in the U.S. Labor Market September 8, 2025 (175) A changing of the guard is afoot in intergovernmental political and economic policymaking. The America First foreign policy of the Trump Administration has intensified efforts by BRIC countries such as Russia, India and China in particular…
One Additional Thought on the Slowdown of U.S. Employment Growth September 6, 2025 Note was made in Friday’s daily post that non-farm payroll employment growth during the middle third of this year (May-August) had averaged only 26.8 thousand per month. To give that pace further perspective, U.S. employment in the first third of the year…
Next Week’s Menu: September 6-12, 2025 September 5, 2025 Central Banks: The European Central Bank and central banks in Russia, Serbia, Ukraine, Peru, Turkey and George have scheduled policy reviews next week. ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference, and new staff forecasts will be unveiled. Events: A parliamentary vote of confidence on the…
Euroland GDP, U.S. Labor Stats, and Lots More Data to Absorb This Friday September 5, 2025 The first U.S. jobs report since the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics got replaced after weak July numbers arrives in less than an hour. Jobs in July grew a lower-than-forecast 73 thousand, which is about what analysts…
Waiting for a Clarifying Ruling of U.S. Tariff Policy and This Month’s Fed Interest Rate Decision September 4, 2025 U.S. President Trump has asked the Supreme Court to rule very quickly and overturn the recent Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit that much of his tariff policy changes had overstepped his authority. Tariff hikes…
National Bank of Poland’s Interest Rate Sliced 25 Basis Points to 4.75% September 3, 2025 Poland’s three central bank interest rate reductions since May total 100 basis points. A single percentage point of easing also was done at consecutive policy reviews in September and October of 2023, and the new 4.75% policy rate level is…
Political Uncertainties, GDP and Price Data, and Another Large Batch of PMI Survey Releases September 3, 2025 Omnipresent political concerns keep chugging along. France and Japan face possible political leadership changes later this month. Tensions are rising between China and the United States. U.S. policies on tariffs, domestic military policing and deportations without due process…
Financial Markets Come Out of Summer in a Foreboding Mood September 2, 2025 On this first U.S. business day of September, the dollar rallied strongly but only because of a wave of risk aversion sweeping through world financial markets. Overnight dollar gains include advances of 1.4% against sterling, 1.1% relative to the yen, 1.0% versus…
August PMI Manufacturing Indices, SCO Summit in China and Labor Day Holiday Closures in the United States & Canada September 1, 2025 (176) Market activity this Monday has been muted by the Labor Day observances in the U.S. and Canada. The dollar is 0.2% softer against the euro and sterling, unchanged relative to the loonie,…