April 2024 – March 2025 Benchmark Revision of Non-Payroll Employment Clarifies Picture Further September 10, 2025 It was noted in a previous post last Friday that the 27 thousand change in non-farm payroll jobs during the middle third of 2025 was down from 123K in the first third of the year and 218K in the…
Price and Industrial Production Data for Many Economies, Big ECB Announcement Tomorrow, and So Much More September 10, 2025 French President Macron wasted little time appointing his next Prime Minister, Sebastien Lecornu and by picking someone whose policy preferences align with his signals a continuing stress on budget cuts and pro-business legislation. Street riots continue…
Political Changes, U.S. Benchmark Revisions of Employment, and Various Inflation Data Releases September 9, 2025 French Prime Minister Bayrou lost yesterday’s parliamentary vote of confidence, and President Macron must now appoint another politician to head a parliament in which no party holds a majority of seats. The outcome had been widely anticipated given the sharp…
Political Troubles in Japan and France, But Also Worrying Signs in the U.S. Labor Market September 8, 2025 (175) A changing of the guard is afoot in intergovernmental political and economic policymaking. The America First foreign policy of the Trump Administration has intensified efforts by BRIC countries such as Russia, India and China in particular…
One Additional Thought on the Slowdown of U.S. Employment Growth September 6, 2025 Note was made in Friday’s daily post that non-farm payroll employment growth during the middle third of this year (May-August) had averaged only 26.8 thousand per month. To give that pace further perspective, U.S. employment in the first third of the year…
Next Week’s Menu: September 6-12, 2025 September 5, 2025 Central Banks: The European Central Bank and central banks in Russia, Serbia, Ukraine, Peru, Turkey and George have scheduled policy reviews next week. ECB President Lagarde will hold a press conference, and new staff forecasts will be unveiled. Events: A parliamentary vote of confidence on the…
Euroland GDP, U.S. Labor Stats, and Lots More Data to Absorb This Friday September 5, 2025 The first U.S. jobs report since the chief of the Bureau of Labor Statistics got replaced after weak July numbers arrives in less than an hour. Jobs in July grew a lower-than-forecast 73 thousand, which is about what analysts…
Waiting for a Clarifying Ruling of U.S. Tariff Policy and This Month’s Fed Interest Rate Decision September 4, 2025 U.S. President Trump has asked the Supreme Court to rule very quickly and overturn the recent Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit that much of his tariff policy changes had overstepped his authority. Tariff hikes…
National Bank of Poland’s Interest Rate Sliced 25 Basis Points to 4.75% September 3, 2025 Poland’s three central bank interest rate reductions since May total 100 basis points. A single percentage point of easing also was done at consecutive policy reviews in September and October of 2023, and the new 4.75% policy rate level is…
Political Uncertainties, GDP and Price Data, and Another Large Batch of PMI Survey Releases September 3, 2025 Omnipresent political concerns keep chugging along. France and Japan face possible political leadership changes later this month. Tensions are rising between China and the United States. U.S. policies on tariffs, domestic military policing and deportations without due process…