by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2025 12:49:00 PM Goldman Sachs economists put out a note this morning: When Will Growth Slow, and When Will We Know? A few brief excerpts: Most of the sequential inflation increases in the last trade war took place within 2-3 months of the tariffs’ implementation, and we expect spending growth to…
by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2025 09:49:00 AM Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions Tightened in Q1 pre-Tariffs Excerpt: From the NMHC: Apartment Market Sees Tighter Conditions, Rebounding Deal Flow and Improved Debt Financing in First Quarter Changes in U.S. trade policy over the past two weeks have impacted global…
by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 07:33:00 PM From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Jump Back Toward 7% The latest headlines involve heavy criticism of Fed Chair Powell on the part of The President. Without any comment on whether that criticism is justified, we can still observe that markets find it unsettling. Traders…
by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 02:03:00 PM From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today, I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in March, down 4.7% from February’s preliminary…
by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2025 08:11:00 AM Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 2.4% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 15.2% from the seasonal bottom in January and is increasing. Usually, inventory is up about 6% or 7% from the seasonal low by this week in the year. So, 2025 is seeing a larger than…
by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2025 06:37:00 PM Weekend:• Schedule for Week of April 20, 2025 Monday:• No major economic releases scheduled. From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are down 20 and DOW futures are down 128 (fair value). Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $64.68 per…
by Calculated Risk on 4/20/2025 10:00:00 AM This is something to watch with less international travel. Here are the daily travel numbers from the TSA. This data is as of April 16, 2025. Click on graph for larger image. This data shows the 7-day average of daily total traveler throughput from the TSA (Blue). Air travel is…
At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week: Click on graph for larger image. • Housing and Demographics • Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March • Watch Inventory and Why Measures of Existing Home Inventory appear Different • 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in March This is usually published…
by Calculated Risk on 4/19/2025 08:11:00 AM The key reports scheduled for this week are March New and Existing Home sales. For manufacturing, the April Richmond and Kansas City manufacturing surveys will be released. —– Monday, April 21st —– No major economic releases scheduled. —– Tuesday, April 22nd —– 10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of…
by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2025 06:42:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. For deaths, I’m currently using 4 weeks ago for “now”, since the most recent three weeks will be revised significantly. Note: “Effective May 1, 2024, hospitals are no longer required to report COVID-19 hospital admissions, hospital…