by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2025 11:39:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing and Demographics A brief excerpt: I’ll return to the above graph and discuss some of the implications for the next decade, but first, here is a similar graph for July 2010. The arrow points to the large cohort moving…
by Calculated Risk on 4/18/2025 08:30:00 AM From BofA: 1Q GDP tracking increased three tenths to 0.7% q/q saar after the upward revisions to Jan and Feb core control retail sales. [Apr 17th estimate]emphasis added From Goldman: We left our Q1 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +0.4% (quarter-over-quarter annualized). [Apr 17th estimate] And from the…
by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2025 08:31:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Friday:• All US markets will be closed in observance of Good Friday. • AT 10:00 AM ET, State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2025 Source link
by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2025 01:05:00 PM What this means: On a weekly basis, Realtor.com reports the year-over-year change in active inventory and new listings. On a monthly basis, they report total inventory. For March, Realtor.com reported inventory was up 28.5% YoY, but still down 20.2% compared to the 2017 to 2019 same month levels. …
by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2025 09:30:00 AM Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.324 million Annual Rate in March A brief excerpt: First, from Reuters: D.R. Horton cuts 2025 revenue forecast on weak demand for homes U.S. homebuilder D.R. Horton lowered its full-year revenue forecast and missed second-quarter profit…
by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2025 08:40:00 AM From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts:Privately-owned housing starts in March were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,324,000. This is 11.4 percent below the revised February estimate of 1,494,000, but is 1.9 percent above the March 2024 rate of 1,299,000. Single-family housing starts…
by Calculated Risk on 4/17/2025 08:31:00 AM The DOL reported: In the week ending April 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 215,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 223,000 to 224,000. The 4-week moving average was 220,750,…
by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2025 07:11:00 PM Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios. Thursday:• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 224 initial claims up from 223 thousand last week. • At 8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for March. The…
by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2025 01:30:00 PM From Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook Excerpt: Looking forward, the new Administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation. Those policies are still evolving, and their effects on the economy remain highly uncertain. As we learn…
by Calculated Risk on 4/16/2025 11:29:00 AM From CoStar: US inbound international travel takes 12% hit as economists postpone pre-pandemic recovery to 2029 Whatever hopes the travel industry had in a full recovery to 2019 levels of travel bookings this year have officially been dashed, according to one economist. “Our pre-inauguration forecast expected international travel…