Attention Shifts to Other Countries from the United States November 8, 2024 The broad Republican Party victory in Tuesday’s U.S. election has been center-stage in global financial markets most of this week. Running on a platform calling for sweeping changes on a wide range of policies, Trump got a slim majority of the popular vote…
FOMC Statement and Press Conference November 7, 2024 The Federal Open Market Committee, as had been expected, voted to lower the federal funds target by an additional 25 basis points to a range of 4.5-4.75%. A released statement made minimal cosmetic changes. In discussing the U.S. labor market, the prior observation that job gains have…
FOMC Preview November 7, 2024 The unexpected breath of this week’s Republican Party election victory is not expected to impede previous signals by the Fed of a likely modest interest rate hike at this month’s scheduled monetary policy review. There previously has been only a single 50-basis point cut from peak, which happened at the…
Bank of England Base Rate Reduced 25 Basis Points as Was Expected November 7, 2024 The Bank of England’s 25-basis point base rate cut to 4.75% was favored by 8 of 9 committee members, with Catherine Mann dissenting with a vote of no change. This was the second 25-basis point reduction since August and follows…
Central Bank Interest Rate Changes in Czech Republic, Sweden and Brazil November 7, 2024 There’s been a 25-basis point cut of the Czech National Bank’s two-week repo rate to 4.0%. It’s the eighth reduction since last December (four times by 50 bps and four times by 25 bps including the most recent three occasions). Consumer…
U.S. Election Reaction Sharing Spotlight with Central Banks November 7, 2024 The Federal Reserve, which is expected to cut its interest rate target today by 25 basis points, is but one of several central banks in today’s news. Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Brazil’s Selic rate was lifted late yesterday by 50 basis points. The…
Republican Victory Lifts Dollar, U.S. Equities, and 10-Year Treasury Yield Sharply November 6, 2024 Donald Trump’s declared electoral votes topped the magical 270 much more quickly than had been expected. Republicans also recaptured a senate majority and lead in House seat contest with 57 still undecided. Trump has a 3.5 percentage point majority in the…
Last Day for Voting in the 2024 U.S. Election November 5, 2024 In these polarized times, one area of wide agreement surrounding today’s U.S. election is that the stakes riding on the outcome are enormously high. Voters have been prepped not to be surprised if the winners of the presidential race and several congressional contests…
Who Dealt This Mess Anyway? November 4, 2024 The following article was originally posted to Currency Thoughts almost exactly ten years ago: https://currencythoughts.com/2014/11/19/who-dealt-this-mess-anyway/ . On the eve of this consequential election for the United States and the world, it carries continuing relevance all these years later. So with apologies for a few typos that never…
Dollar and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Fall at the Start of This Momentous Week November 4, 2024 The weighted DXY dollar index fell 0.6% overnight to a two-week low. That’s an atypically large daily move by recent standards. The outlook of tomorrow’s U.S. presidential and congressional election remains highly uncertain, with candidates projecting wholly divergent visions…