Dollar Up Against Yen and Canadian Dollar but Flat Relative to Euro and Sterling October 11, 2024 Yesterday’s U.S. CPI report delivered mixed news, so investors seek further reassurance from today’s producer price inflation due today and projected to dip modestly on both a month-on-month and year-on-year basis. Overnight trading saw the dollar advance 0.4%…
Next Week’s Menu: October 5, 2024 October 4, 2024 Central Banks: While the coming week has a limited number of central banks reviewing their policy stances including those in Peru, India, South Korea and New Zealand, a slew of central bankers have speaking engagements. This includes Kugler, Barkin, Goolsbee, Williams, Logan, Jefferson, Bowman, Bostic, Musalem,…
Marking Time Ahead of U.S. September Labor Market Data Release October 4, 2024 At this writing, the release of U.S. and Canadian labor market statistics is just over an our away. The dollar fell 0.3% overnight against the yen and sterling, but its other major relationships have barely moved. Two developments worth monitoring involve rises…
Reflections on the Vance-Walz Vice-Presidential Debate October 3, 2024 Among the various factors that impact U.S. voter predispositions, vice-presidential debates generally rank low. Nonetheless, last Tuesday’s event was illuminating in helping to shed light on some faulty arguments that are being made. Here are five: Should Vice President Harris be held accountable for things both…
Festering Concerns October 3, 2024 It’s getting harder for investors to overlook the coming U.S. election, now less than five weeks away and still fraught with uncertainty. A strike of U.S. dockworkers along the Gulf and Eastern seaboards could not have come at a more awkward time. The possibility of a full-blown, multi-front war in…
Iceland’s Initial Central Bank Rate Cut October 2, 2024 The Central Bank of Iceland became the latest monetary authority to initiate a cycle of interest rate cuts from an extended highly restrictive level. The key 7-day term deposit had been held at 9.25% since a 50-basis point hike in August 2023 culminated increases totaling 125…
Strong Yen Sales October 2, 2024 Japan’s ultra-loose monetary policy when other central banks scrambled to tame a sharp rise inflationary pressure in 2021-3 had encouraged investors to borrow essentially free money offered in Japan and invest in higher yielding assets elsewhere. Those so-called carry trades are now being reversed and consequently driving down the…
Dollar Steps Up as Final Quarter of 2024 Begins October 1, 2024 Remarks by Fed Chairman Powell yesterday afternoon countered mounting speculation of another 50-basis point rate cut, offering the alternative of two 25-bp moves before yearend as a far likelier scenario. In response, the dollar rebounded overnight by 0.4% against the euro, sterling and…
Rate Cut Fever September 25, 2024 In the wake of a disappointing and unexpected relapse in U.S. consumer confidence in the Conference Board’s monthly measure this month, financial markets are attaching greater odds to another interest rate cut by the FOMC at its early November meeting following the sizable 50-bp initial reduction made earlier this…
Downward Rate Cycle Resumed in Hungary September 24, 2024 From a base rate peak of 13.0% maintained for nearly a year, officials initiated a declining trend eleven months ago that methodically made cuts at ten straight monthly meetings until the one in August when the rate was kept at 6.75%. CPI inflation had crested slightly…